OxBlog

Tuesday, April 01, 2003

# Posted 10:51 PM by Patrick Belton  

BOND VILLAIN OR HUSSEIN FAMILY MEMBER?: American (and British) moviewriters couldn't make this stuff up. The Bondean sociopath here is, of course, Uday Hussein, who tortures and murders Iraqi athletes whose performance in international sporting events doesn't please his caprice. Uday is head of the Iraqi national Olympics committee. What has the Olympics' governing IOC done about this? If you're guessing "zippo" - you win, errr, a copy of my thesis. Not wanting to stick out at the next international organizations party in Brussels, IOC board members have said "you have to make sure this is not all tied to the Iraq-U.S. dispute, that we are not being used for propaganda. You just never know."

The game alluded to in the header is, by the way, a variant of the "English dessert or STD?" game beloved by generations of Americans at Oxford. Examples: spotted dick? treacle?
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# Posted 9:44 PM by David Adesnik  

SULLIVAN VS. MARSHALL: It isn't often that Josh Marshall descends into the trenches of the inter-blog warfare, but it's hard not to respond to a challenge from a blogger like Andrew Sullivan whose stature rests on far more than his website.

For the moment, there is no victor in this clash of the titans. I think Marshall's post deserves a response, despite the fact that it comes close to evading Sullivan's points.

However, if you agree with Josh (Marshall) that "tit-for-tats with other bloggers...get too insidery and readers get bored with them" then ignore the clash and head straight for Marshall's latest posts on Rumsfeld's failure as a military strategist.

Reading these posts, it's hard to know whether Marshall thinks that the current situation is evidence of Rumsfeld's failure, or whether Rumsfeld's failures will be responsible if something goes terribly wrong. IMHO, Marshall is right that Rumsfeld has come close to crossing the line between boldness and hubris. And the US may well have to shift to a more traditional strategy for taking Baghdad. But unless something does go terribly wrong because of Rumsfeld's insistence on overruling the generals, I think Marshall's "hyperbolic" criticism will seem rather excessive in retrospect.

(NB: Even if Marshall is above tit-for-tats, he certainly can't resist the usual blogospheric temptation to play for sympathy by publishing the most offensive criticism his readers send in.)
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# Posted 8:24 PM by David Adesnik  

FIRE IN A CROWDED THEATER: Defending Peter Arnett is a lonely task, but I'm not going to give up just yet. In this post, I'm going to respond to three separate charges against Arnett that have been raised both by Josh's response to my original post as well as by multiple readers who have sent in their thoughts.

The relevant issues at hand are whether the substance of Arnett's remarks merited firing him, whether the consequences of his remarks merited firing him, and finally, whether the context in which he delivered them merited firing him.

As for substance, Josh points to the National Review's decision to fire Ann Coulter as an example of when it is appropriate to fire someone because of the substance of their remarks. But if you follow Josh's own link to NRO's official explanation for firing Coulter, you'll see that it had nothing to do with the content of her remarks.

As Jonah Goldberg clearly states, Coulter failed as a writer, not as a person. According to Golberg,
In the wake of her invade-and-Christianize-them column, Coulter wrote a long, rambling rant of a response to her critics that was barely coherent...

Running this "piece" would have been an embarrassment to Ann, and to NRO. Rich Lowry pointed this out to her in an e-mail (I was returning from my honeymoon). She wrote back an angry response, defending herself from the charge that she hates Muslims and wants to convert them at gunpoint.
Clearly, NRO did not fire Coulter becaue of her i"nvade-and-Christianize-them" column. It fired her because she refused to bring her work up to the publication's own standards. In fact, NRO didn't actually fire Coulter. Instead of responding to Lowery's e-mail, Coulter began to bash NRO in public forums, such as the WaPo. As Jonah Goldberg asks,
What publication on earth would continue a relationship with a writer who would refuse to discuss her work with her editors? What publication would continue to publish a writer who attacked it on TV? What publication would continue to publish a writer who lied about it — on TV and to a Washington Post reporter?
Insubordination, incompetence and deception. That is why Ann Coulter lost her job.

On a related point, reader PW challenges my statement
that journalists have the right to say whatever they want to say without having to worry they might be fired. This only seems correct because Arnett just barely crossed the line. Apply the same thought to a more extreme idea - if he had said that the Jews in the US were driving policy towards the middle east, say, something so obviously indefensible, and he were fired, I don't think you would be saying he must be kept on because of his right to free speech, so as a general principle, your statement fails.
I disagree. If Arnett had made such a monstrous statement, I would demand an apology but not his job. I might demand that NBC ask for his resignation, but the ultimate decision would have to stay in the hands of Arnett himself. If a journalist fulfills his or her duty to report the news as best as possible, his or her private views are not grounds for being fired.

Next we come to the question of consequences. Josh writes that Arnett's comments had
the effect of reinforcing the position of the Iraqi regime and discouraging critics of that regime. The appropriate parallel is Hanoi Jane, and if Fonda had been working for NBC at the time, she damn well should have been fired.
Jane Fonda aside, I think the Constitution is on my side here. The right to speak one's mind is the right to say things that have "the effect of reinforcing the position of the Iraqi regime" (with the obvious exception of revealing military secrets).

Nicholas de Genova's absurd remarks at a Columbia teach-in had the same effect. Every anti-war protest has the same effect. That is why we have a First Amendment.

The fact that Arnett is a journalist should not make any difference provided that he has not consciously distorted the truth in order to advance his political agenda. According to the AP report I cited yesterday, Arnett told Iraqi TV that
the United States was reappraising the battlefield and delaying the war, maybe for a week, 'and rewriting the war plan. The first war plan has failed because of Iraqi resistance. Now they are trying to write another war plan.'

Arnett said it was clear that, within the United States, opposition to the war was growing, along with a challenge to President Bush about the war's conduct.
If you ask me, those are some pretty bland comments coming from a guy who's openly anti-war.

It is also worth pointing out that journalists often have an obligation to report information that has the effect of reinforcing the position of the Iraqi regime. As Arnett remarked in his interview,
"Our reports about civilian casualties here, about the resistance of the Iraqi forces, are going back to the United States," he said. "It helps those who oppose the war when you...develop their arguments."
It's hard to disagree with Arnett on this point. If civlians die or if Coaltion forces lose battles, the public has a right to know. The public and its representatives can then decide whether enough civilians have died or battles have been lost for the United States to reconsider its plans.

The final issue at play is whether Arnett crossed the line by granting an interview to Iraqi TV. According to JS, "I believe the context in which Arnett gave the interview is pivotal to
why he was fired. He may be expressing his sincere views, but he did so to the controlled media of a brutal state, and to their benefit." Josh seems to agree (despite later contradicting himself), having written that "[Arnett] wasn't fired for what he said, but rather to whom he said it. He gave an interview to Iraqi state-run media..."

There is a strong argument to be made for all journalists refusing to cooperate with controlled, state-run media. As guardians of the right to self-expression, journalists have an obligation to speak out against all those attempt to deny it. Still, one has to ask whether NBC itself or most news organizations have an official policy that prohibits cooperation with state-run media. If any of you happen to know, please share.

However, in light of NBC's statement that Arnett should have asked permission before giving the interview, it seems right to infer that NBC has no objection in principle to cooperating with controlled media. (Then again, a spokesman for the network also said that "It was wrong for Mr. Arnett to grant an interview to state-controlled Iraqi TV, especially at a time of war." However, this sort of inconsistency only supports my point.)

Finally, reader CI writes that
If [Arnett] had said the same things on "Meet the Press" or on a Sky News interview, I suspect nothing at all would have happened.
Of course not. But that speaks to a lack of integrity on NBC's part, not Arnett's.
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# Posted 5:59 PM by David Adesnik  

SOLDIERS PRAY FOR BUSH: I would too if I were in the military. Anyhow, according to the WaPo, pamphlets from Atlanta's In Touch Ministries have instructed troops to pray for the President and his family.
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# Posted 5:48 PM by David Adesnik  

MUBARAK WARNS OF BACKLASH: The Egyptian dictator "warned today that a protracted U.S.-led war in Iraq will lead to a dangerous rise in Islamic militancy across the Arab world."

In the same article, ministers from Jordan and Saudi Arabia also warn that the US invasion will provoke a backlash. Do you see a trend here? Those whose well-being is intimately tied to the survival of repressive dictatorships constantly warn of a coming backlash.

I wouldn't be all that suprised if Mubarak & Co. actually believe what they are saying. After all, it's hard for dictators to survive unless they are somewhat paranoid. Better to crush threats that don't exist than fail to notice one that does.

Warning of an anti-American backlash also has the pleasant side-effect of distracting both Americans and Arabs from recognizing the true cause of instability in the Middle East -- the total prevalence of brutal dictatorships.

The first step toward dispelling such illusions is the democratization of Iraq. Let the people of the Middle East see that freedom is a real option. Then they will slowly begin to recognize who is on their side and who isn't.
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# Posted 5:34 PM by David Adesnik  

CELEBRITY OCCUPATION: Donald Rumsfeld has written off the State Department's candidates for running occupied as Iraq as "'too low-profile and bureaucratic' for the work envisioned". The State Department's candidates had actually gone through training on were on the point of shipping out to Kuwait before being ordered to "stand down".

And a damn good thing they were. Assuming the eight were, in fact, low-profile bureaucrats, one might guess that the State Department selected them in order to minimize the amount of media attention given to the occupation once it starts.

Why? So no one trashes State when it starts to endorse half-hearted democratization measures. Or, possibly, so that State can cede as much authority as possible to the United Nations with drawing too much attention.

If Larry Kaplan's report in TNR is on target, then it seems both Foggy Bottom and 10 Downing St. want to make peace with the rest of Security Council by offering it political control of the occupation. [Full text for subscribers only.]

Bad, bad idea. Having UN High Commissioner or the like means having someone who has to answer to the non-democratic states on the Security Council as well as taking the interest of Arab dictatorships into consideration.

While there is no question that the US and UK will look out for their own interests in the process of occupation, their interests are far more compatible with the process of democratization. So let's hope the Pentagon puts its heavy hitters in Iraq. The WaPo thinks former CIA director Jim Woolsey is on the inside track for a big job. Good choice. Woolsey is fully committed to democratization as well as being a Washington player.

[According to Patrick, Woolsey also has a stunningly beautiful right-hand (wo)man. While Josh and I are inclined to agree, we think she got the job because she's a Rhodes Scholar.)

Let's hope the rest of the Pentagon's candidates are as important as Woolsey or moreso. Let's get the world to watch, so America has to put its best foot forward.

UPDATE: Josh Marshall says the WaPo article cited above
makes painfully clear that Rumsfeld is intent on stacking the entire post-war American occupation government with members of the DC Iraq-regime-change mafia. It's not even an American occupation; it's an AEI occupation. Every made-man in the gang gets his own ministry apparently. Maybe they'll set up an Iraqi Defense Policy Board that Richard Perle can run in Baghdad. I hear he's on the market again. Ken Adelman, Ministry of Pastries?

Now we know where all those discredited cakewalk Iraq-hawks are headed. They're going to Baghdad to run the occuption.
In short, the Pentagon's motivation in all of this is partisan politics, not a serious commitment to promoting democracy. Here's what I'm going to do to get to the bottom of this: Tell Josh Marshall that his first priority after the war is over is making sure that the media stays focused on the truth about the occupatin.
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# Posted 2:42 PM by Daniel  

HOLY WAR! Yes, I have heard the term jihad defended--that is literally means "striving"--but I don't think that's what Iraqi Information Minister Muhammad Said al-Sahhaf meant in his speech today. I want to point out that I am the first person to speculate about Saddam's whereabouts.
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Monday, March 31, 2003

# Posted 10:24 PM by David Adesnik  

SHOUT OUT TO INSTAPUNDIT: It's not like Glenn needs OxBlog to tell him he's doing a good job. But he does get a lot of flak for all sorts of things, I'd just like to say that he has done a really, really good job of finding interesting things to post in the two weeks since the war began.
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# Posted 10:13 PM by David Adesnik  

DE GENOVA IN CONTEXT: In-depth insight from Daniel Drezner. For an extra dose of Double D's insightful commentary, click here and here.
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# Posted 10:04 PM by David Adesnik  

NOW I GET IT: Seems the US wasn't exactly the only one supporting Iraq back in the day. Just the only who's decided to admit it was wrong.
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# Posted 9:59 PM by David Adesnik  

DEFENDING RACHEL CORRIE: No, not on OxBlog. In The Guardian. Once you've read the Guardian column and gotten yourself good and indignant, read Bill Herbert's devastating response.
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# Posted 9:49 PM by David Adesnik  

DEFENDING ARNETT: NBC has fired Baghdad correspondent Peter Arnett for giving an unauthorized interview with Iraqi state television. According to the AP:
NBC was angered because Arnett gave the interview Sunday without permission and presented opinion as fact. The network initially backed him, but reversed field after watching a tape of his remarks.

The network said it got "thousands" of e-mails and phone calls protesting Arnett's remarks - a thousand e-mails to MSNBC President Erik Sorenson alone.
You know, the whole point of freedom of speech is that you have it regardless of what you say. It sounds like NBC endorsed Arnett's freedom of speech right up until it found out what he had to say. There's a word for behavior like that: hypocrisy.

Even worse, it sounds like NBC fired Arnett because it didn't have the guts to stand up to its viewers. That doesn't say a lot for the network's integrity. Now, what NBC did is probably legal. But the media cannot continue to function as a guardian of free speech if its own behavior compromises that role.

According to Glenn Reynolds, Arnett had it coming for a lot of reasons. Regardless, I'm glad he decided to give the interview. Journalists are political figures. They should have to defend their views rather than hiding behind a curtain of objectivity.

What Arnett did was pull back that curtain. No surprise he was fired.

(For more on Arnett, click here and here.)
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# Posted 6:05 PM by David Adesnik  

WMD ACADEMY: Alan Henderson observes that
It's one thing to have chemical weapons, but it's another to have people who know how to properly handle and deploy them. If I'm a military intel guy, one of the first questions I want answered is how many Republican Guardsmen are chem warfare specialists and where they are located. My top priority would be to locate them and aim our next volley of ordnance at them ASAP.

If I'm an UNMOVIC inspector, one of the first things I want to look for is chem warfare training facilities - which in themselves would be evidence of a WMD program.
If only Hans Blix had known...

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# Posted 5:56 PM by David Adesnik  

BUSH AND BLAIR: In love. Will it last? (Special thanks to BL!)
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# Posted 5:05 PM by David Adesnik  

MUSTARD ON WRY: Even though French's is not manufactured in France, JMH reports that there is "worse news. The mustard seed is grown in Canada."

I think I can live with that. As long as the seeds are not from Quebec.

Btw, since JMH is a captain in the Canadian army, I sense that his report may have a subtle sarcastic subtext. C'est la vie!

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# Posted 3:30 PM by Patrick Belton  

HAPPY BIRTHDAY, PAPA HAYDN! For homework, go and celebrate Haydn's birthday by listening to the Creation chorale.

Haydn's most recognizable melody is, of course, the music of the Deutschlandlied. Now made embarassing by the tyrant of Braunau-am-Inn and since then never performed in its first verse, Germany's national anthem initially had a very different set of associations, serving as a rallying cry of the republican nationalists of 1848, and inspired by the solemn beauty of God Save the King. More important from the perspective of musical history, though, is a second context: the melody we recognize as Deutschland Uber Alles is the second movement of Haydn's 1797 Emperor Quartet (in C Major, the third of six quartets published as Haydn's Opus 76). And the string quartet is the musical form which Haydn did more than anyone else to bring from its early beginnings as a melody with tripartite accompaniment to the balanced development of four equal voices using sonata form which is reflected in the Emperor and companion pieces, incidentally, Haydn's final quartets.

Alles Gute zum Geburtstag, Papa Haydn! Hoch soll er leben!
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# Posted 3:00 PM by Patrick Belton  

IRAQ WATCH: The AP picks up this morning on a story from pro-government Moscow daily Nezavisimaya Gazeta, reporting that agents from Russian intelligence are meeting daily with Iraqi officials to negotiate the transfer of Iraqi intelligence files to Moscow's control should Saddam fall. Yevgeny Primakov, former Soviet foreign minister and spymaster, met with Saddam in a February exchange shrouded in secrecy to apparently discuss precisely this point. According to the reporting, Russia is principally interested in obtaining intelligence which Iraqi agents have collected from other countries (yes, that means us), as well as determining to what extent Iraq may have financed Russian political parties and movements.


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Sunday, March 30, 2003

# Posted 9:38 PM by David Adesnik  

SELF-HELP: In a moment of eccentric brilliance, Mike Sanders of Keep Trying has written up the Seven Habits of Highly Effective Blogging.

As both a blogger and an actual bricks-and-mortar person, I found it to be extremely thoughtful. If you blog, read it. If you don't, it may help you understand us strange folks who do.
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# Posted 9:21 PM by David Adesnik  

AMNESTY INTERNATIONAL and Human Rights Watch sell out. (From the USS Clueless.)
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# Posted 8:11 PM by David Adesnik  

WHO KNEW? It's not the US, but rather the UN that is trying to get rich on Iraqi oil.
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# Posted 8:01 PM by David Adesnik  

BILL KRISTOL praises Dick Gephardt and Hillary Clinton. Really!
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# Posted 7:38 PM by David Adesnik  

CLASS WARFARE: David Broder on the tax cut that would come at the expense of food stamps, school lunches and child nutrition programs. While the government should cut taxes when it can (even if the rich are the ones that benefit), this is not the time.
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# Posted 7:27 PM by David Adesnik  

JOSH FINDS AN EXCUSE for the gratuitous use of the word tits. People, need I remind you that this is a family blog?
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# Posted 2:50 PM by David Adesnik  

'OUTRAGE SPREADS IN ARAB WORLD' is the headline of a story in today's WaPo. As usual, this sort of article is a collection of absurd anti-American quotes combined with implications that the Arab media is at fault.

As for me, I think this sort of outrage is all talk. You can always find Arabs who hate America. The question is, what are they doing about it? Not much, as far as I can tell.

The problem with the media -- including top-notch papers such as the WaPo -- is that journalists have fixed expectations of what the news will be, and they won't abandon those expectations unless something truly dramatic happens. (And even then, they sometimes forget what they have learned.)

This isn't a simple matter of liberal or conservative bias, but of journalists -- especially those who cover foreign affairs -- having simplistic expectations of how non-Americans react to world events. On the bright side, at least the journalists' expectations are more realistic than the professors'...

UPDATE: The WaPo has not just one, but three separate articles on the backlash theme. The other two are here and here.

The first of the two illustrates my point perfectly. It is about a Saudi couple named Leila and Mohammed. She is a physician who wears tights sweaters and stiletto heels. He is a businessman who does import-export. They are enraged by the invasion. Leila goes to anger management classes and tells the WaPo correspondent she may just have to become a suicide bomber.

This is what the media calls a backlash. Upper-middle class Saudis who make empty threats to abandon their pampered lives. Did I mention that Leila and Mohammed are also very, very angry about what Israel does to the Palestinians?


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# Posted 2:39 PM by David Adesnik  

WAR POLLS: Gallup has the latest. Support for the war is holding steady at above 70% in spite of a marked decrease in public optimism about the war. This strongly suggests that the American public did not/does not support the war because of false expectations about the ease of victory, even if it might've had such expectations. (Gallup didn't say that, of course. It's an OxBlog editorial comment.)

As I see it, the public's memory of Vietnam is just as strong as that of the media. The public, however, has drawn different lessons from it. Whereas the media is committed to a constant search for evidence of a quagmire, the public recognizes that war is hell and that things often go wrong. But you can't back out at the first sign of danger. If the cause is just, the public will stand behind the government.

There are those who do not support the war, however. Among there American public, there are significant divides along the lines of race, party, gender and class. The black-white divide is most striking. Whereas as white support the war 78-20, blacks oppose it 69-28.

78 percent of men favor the war compared to 66 percent of women. There was a similar gap during the first gulf war. 93 percent of Republicans support the war, compared to 66 percent for independents and 54 for Democrats. Finally, only 58 percent of Americans with a household income of less than $30,000 support the war, compared to 78% for all others.

The obvious question, of course, is to what degree such categories overlap. Does lower support among Democrats and those with incomes below $30,000 simply reflect the anti-war sentiment of poor black Democrats? Or are there significant numbers of poor white Democrats, poor white Republicans, rich black Democrats and rich Black republicans who oppose the war as well? Without answering that question, one cannot know whether race, class or party is responsible for the divide.

Unfortunately, Gallup doesn't provide a break down of the numbers. It does, however, provide the results of a multivariate analysis designed to answer the same question. This analysis shows that race is the most significant factor, but that party and class matter as well. Gender is irrelevant despite the 12 point divide mentioned above.

More interestingly, it turns out that -- far and away -- the single best predictor of support for the war is whether or not one approves of Bush's leadership as President. According to Gallup,
The single greatest predictor of views on the war is one's rating of President Bush, suggesting that to a significant degree this has become "Bush's war."
Phrasing it that way sounds rather snide, sort of like saying that Vietnam was Lyndon Johnson's war. But Gallup does offer a less partisan explanation as well:
The stronger influence of presidential approval can be probably explained by the reality that most Democrats and independents who support the war also approve of Bush, while most Democrats and independents who oppose the war also disapprove of Bush's job performance.
There are a number of ways of interpreting that statement. First, that if one trusts the President on Iraq, then party affilitaion doesn't matter. Alternately, pre-existing resentment of the President has made it impossible to persuade certain Democrats and independents to support the war.

I sense there is some truth in both arguments. However, it would be interesting to know if the pro/anti-war divide reflects different views of how America should interact with the world, not simply attitudes toward the President. Are anti-war Americans the strongest supporters of multilateralism and of the United Nations? Are they willing to support the use of force only in the event of an attack on the American homeland? If so, they have good reason to disapprove of Bush, whose position on these is issues is diametrically opposed to their own.

As you may have noticed in my earlier comments on opinion polls, I have a fair amount of confidence in the reasonableness of the American people. Their (our) opinions are derived from coherent conceptual frameworks, not emotions and propaganda. While trust and resentment have a powerful influence on politics, beliefs usually matter more.

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# Posted 9:16 AM by David Adesnik  

EMOTIONAL RESPONSE: I just visited, for the first time, the CNN site devoted to Coalition casualties in the war. It is very hard to read. It is very hard to look at the pictures of the men who died, most of them younger than myself.

They shouldn't have had to die. They deserve better. It is almost impossible to keep anything in perspective when looking at their photos. I kept thinking to myself: "Why don't we just stop it now? Let's pull out and go home. Let these kids live the lives they deserve."

Chemical weapons and international law seem like nothing more than abstractions when you are looking at those photos. You forget the thousands of Iraqi soldiers who have died. The thousands of Iraqi civilians killed by their government. The men and women who died on September 11th.

Somehow, looking at those pictures, my mind was only able to focus on the most immediate cause of their death. "Killed in action near Nasiriya on March 23, 2003." "Killed in a U.S. CH-46 Sea Knight helicopter crash on March 21, 2003." Killed. Period.

UPDATE: MW responds:
Your emotional response to the CNN posting is understandable - just what CNN wants - that they have not posted pictures of those killed in Israel by suicide bombers, the Iraqis murdered by Saddam, those starved by Mugabe or by the regime in North Korea.

Put pictures of your family and friends on a wall and imagine what life or death would be like for them if tyrants like Saddam gained dominance.

I suspect that is what many of those serving in Iraqi Freedom have dealt with. I hate that they have died. I hate that evil exists and to contain it we must confront it.
Sad but true. Still, I think that posting memorials to fallen soldiers is appropriate in war time and not simply manipulative.
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Saturday, March 29, 2003

# Posted 9:49 PM by David Adesnik  

OUT OF MY LEAGUE: RF sends in an interesting analysis of Tommy Franks' strategy. It covers a lot of points the media haven't bothered much to talk about and thus arrives at a far less critical assessment. But this is way outside my area of expertise, so read it and judge for yourself:
Tommy Franks is a traditionalist. Like all American theater commanders before him, he has aimed at seizing a series of logistics bases on which to develop his campaign. The purpose of 3rd ID's charge to Baghdad was to pin down the IRG by positioning itself only 60 miles form the capital. Behind that screen, Franks could scoop up all logistics bases he wanted safely. H3, H2, Talil, Basur and Umm Qasar. The IRG can't go north to level the 173rd from Bashur because it is now rooted to Baghdad by the 3rd ID.

It is worth mentioning that the dash to Baghdad could not have been achieved with 4th ID in company. The field manuals specify that 150 lbs/day/per man in consumables (not counting equipment) are necessary to support a soldier in SW Asia. That's 4,500 tons per day, the weight of a British destroyer, every day. When 4th ID arrives in theater, that requirement will rise by about 2,000 tons per day. Franks could not have reached Baghdad in under a week with two mech infantry divisions abreast. The logistical tail from
Kuwait would not have supported it.

Frank's command is not currently force limited, so much as logistics limited. Indeed, fully 1/3 of his command, the 3 brigades of 101st AM and the 325th brigade of 82nd AB have not seen action to any meaningful extent. The 4 ID can't be effectively used until the logistical prizes, especially the port, are developed. That's what Franks is doing. The 7 sq mile base of the 101st west of An Najaf is first fruit. More will be to come.

Hardly any of the islands seized in WW 2 were attacked to destroy their garrisons. Guadalcanal, the Gilberts, the Marhsalls, the Bonins were all attacked for their logistical value, and for their ability to interdict enemy countermoves. Franks may be bold, but he is a bold traditionalist.



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# Posted 9:33 PM by David Adesnik  

NOT DIJON: Warmongering Illustrated tells the unpleasant truth about French's Mustard.
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# Posted 9:16 PM by David Adesnik  

ISRAEL IN THE MEDIA: Contemplating the death of Rachel Corrie, DM writes in with a reminder of what happened last year when the NYT misidentified the Jewish victim of a Palestinian mob as a casualty of IDF brutality. Arab propagandsists had something of a field day, to say the least. (All links courtesy of DM!)
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# Posted 8:09 PM by David Adesnik  

PROTESTING WITH PRAYER: These people must be reading Gandhi in their spare time.
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# Posted 7:52 PM by David Adesnik  

THE V-WORD is thrown around gratuitously in this article, but otherwise it is a very interesting account of a less-reported side of the war.
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# Posted 9:39 AM by David Adesnik  

MAKE YOU LAUGH: Say what you will about Kieran Healy's political views, he has a great sense of humor.
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# Posted 9:06 AM by David Adesnik  

PONTIUS PILATE AND LIBERAL IDEALISM: Kieran Healy is deeply concerned about the well-being of the Oxford Democracy Forum. As with most of our critics, Kieran is concerned that our naivete regarding both the prospects for promoting democracy in the Middle East as well as the Bush administration's commitment to doing so will prevent OxDem from accomplshing any of its objectives.

Now, before responding to Kieran's argument, I'd like to congratulate him on his recent marriage as well as thank him for constantly linking to OxBlog.

Now let's get down to business.

Kieran fundamentally misunderstands the purpose of the Oxford Democracy Forum. According to Professor K,
OxDem should be clear about whether it is giving us a description of what the U.S. is doing, or whether it is advising the U.S. about what it ought to be doing...the principles they endorse may be betrayed by the Administration they support. They will then be left having to explain why the post-war strategy which they felt helped justify the invasion was not pursued by the Administration. That’s an uncomfortable position.
First of all, OxDem has been very clear about its purpose. According to the first sentence in our statement of principles, "The Forum's mission is to promote democracy worldwide. It will do so through public education and activism." We are not interested in describing. We are interested in persuading.

Second of all, OxDem does not support this administration or any administration. It is non-partisan. We believe the fundamental strength of our agenda is that one can embrace it regardless of whether one is a Democrat or a Republican, a Tory or a Labourite.

Moreover, this non-partisanship is not simply a facade for either a pro-Republican or a pro-war agenda. I myself have a perfect Democratic voting record, as do many of our other strongest supporters.

Nonetheless, our critics tend to assume -- or simply want to believe -- that we are reflexive supporters of a belligerent approach to international relations. As far as I can tell, this assumption is a reflection of the insecurity that OxDem provokes on the Left by virtue of the fact that it is more committed to liberal principles than its liberal critics are. Thus, such critics comfort themselves by insisting that OxDem's commitment to such principles is nothing more than a front for an unthinking conservative agenda.

I don't know if this criticism applies specifically to Kieran. In fact, one cannot prove that it applies to any given individual, since it is an inference about his or her innermost thoughts. However, liberal critics' belief that OxDem is nothing more than a GOP front simply recurs too often for me to believe that it is an innocent mistake rather than a politically motivated attack.

Now, let's go back to my comment that OxDem "is more committed to liberal principles than its liberal critics are." Many of our critics -- and Kieran specifically -- constantly voice their profound skepticism about the prospects for promoting democracy in the Middle East. They warn that the Bush administration will do nothing to prevent the emergence of semi-authoritarian regimes in Iraq and Afghanistan, provided that such governments are pro-American.

Presuming that neither Kieran nor our other critics favor the installation of semi-authoritarian regimes, exactly what kind of government do they believe the United States should set up? Unfortunately, they don't say. The closest Kieran comes to showing his hand is when he asks
What if we are skeptical that the Bush Administration can or will do what it ought to do, on OxDem’s terms? Max Sawicky is currently exploring this line. He argues that the U.S. “can destroy bad regimes; it cannot bestow self-government on people.” I think there’s a lot to be said for this view.
Even if one agrees with Max, that does not constitute an answer to the question of what kind of government the United States should set up in Iraq. Even if we "cannot bestow self-government", we also cannot let Iraq descend into utter chaos.

Perhaps the more interesting question to be asked is why Kieran and other OxDem critics won't say what principles should guide the American occupation of Iraq. Here's what I think:

In the process of canvassing support for OxDem, Josh and I have come to recognize that there are many individuals who will not publicly support the establishment a democratic government in Baghdad, since doing so implies approval of the war that would precede such an event. In private, however, such individuals accept that the United States has an obligation to establish a democratic government at the end of the current war.

It seems to me that Kieran has taken this logic one step further and simply avoided making any statements about what the United States should do at the end of the war in Iraq, lest even his private support for democracy in Iraq lend some sort of a moral cover to the President's foreign policy.

However, that sort of position is logically untenable and morally indefensible. Assuming that the United States will occupy Iraq as planned, it will have to set up some sort of government in Baghdad. If one is serous about one's liberal principles, then that government must be a democratic one.

What, then, of the legitimate objection that it will not be easy to establish such a government? As Kieran observes,
Democratic institutions aren’t like lizards. They don’t hide under rocks waiting to emerge. They don’t exist in Iraq and will have to be built. Anyone who thinks they can be put together in relatively short order after an invasion doesn’t know what they are talking about. [Boldface in original.]
That much goes without saying. In fact, that is exactly why Josh and I wrote that
We must commit to rebuilding Iraq as a free state, which means committing to the provision of significant amounts of time, money and expertise...If the administration ever turns away from postwar Iraq...OxDem will be there to remind it that its job has only just begun.
As this statement makes clear, OxDem supports democracy promotion in spite of the hardships involved. We are willing to face such hardships precisely because a principled commitment to democracy commitment entails an obligation to face hardship.

Instead of recognzining this obligation, Kieran and others seem to be more interested in washing their hands of responsibility for the fate of Iraq (and Afghanistan). This is the only possible way of reconciling their passivity with their insistence that the Bush administration is insincere in its commitment to promoting democracy in Iraq.

In contrast, OxDem rejects the ethics of Pontius Pilate. We are willing to invest our time and integrity in the struggle to persuade both the Bush administration and the American public that democracy promotion is both consistent with American principles and in the United States' best interests. Kieran is right that
OxDem may fall into the gap between the rhetoric of the Administration and its actions.
But taking that risk is the least that we as individuals can do to help ensure that people in Iraq and throughout the Middle East have a chance to share the freedoms that no American would live without. We hope that once this war has come to an end, our critics will work with us to make that vision a reality.

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# Posted 8:40 AM by Daniel  

WAR OR TERROR? A suicide bombing against American forces in Iraq. To my surprise, Israel didn't come up once in the NY Times and CNN coverage of it.
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Friday, March 28, 2003

# Posted 11:39 PM by David Adesnik  

MEDIA ROUND-UP: Instapundit puts together an informal report card. (Link to OxBlog included!)
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# Posted 11:21 PM by David Adesnik  

READING LIST: Matt Yglesias has comments on two articles I've been meaning to read, one by Josh Marshall and one by Paul Berman.

Matt is also trying to figure out just who is telling the truth about what it will be like to fight in the streets of Baghdad.
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# Posted 11:06 PM by David Adesnik  

MORE ON UNIT COHESION: LDA writes that
I grew up in a military family. My father (who is quite old now and very very 'old school') is a retired Rear Admiral USNR. He has served on a number of promotion boards and has had considerable and broad legal experience in Military Law. He has come across the 'gays in the military' issue quite often and on many levels. I have never heard him question a gay person's commitment to US interests as a reason for keeping him or her out of the service. 'Unit cohesion' or something like that has been his mantra on this issue for as long as I can remember--and still is.
Glad to hear it. As I said before, hopefully every officer worried about unit cohesion will be honest enough to recognize that this war has put such concerns to rest once and for all.

MR adds:
It's not the military that makes the policy - it's the government. If the powers that be truly wanted the discrimation to end they could do it in one fell swoop. Think Truman and integration. Bill Clinton didn't want to fight for it and 'don't ask' was the result. The military follows orders, but they don't initiate policy.
But who didn't Bill Clinton want to fight against? If the military were behind equal opportunity for homosexuals, I think it would've gone through without a fight.
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# Posted 10:56 PM by David Adesnik  

TOO NICE: Dan Simon responds to Jacob Levy and yours truly about whether or not it's possible to limit Iraqi military casualties.
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# Posted 10:54 PM by David Adesnik  

LE MONDE C'EST MAUVAIS: Belgravia Dispatch has the latest on its anti-American absurdity. Joschka Fischer has been getting a bit giddy as well, it seems.
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# Posted 10:28 PM by David Adesnik  

YIKES: Intelligence reports say the Republican Guard is preparing to use chemical weapons in its defense of Baghdad.
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# Posted 10:23 PM by David Adesnik  

BEING NICE TO THE NYT: Since I constantly beat up on the NYT, I thought I'd mention that they've done a good job with this story, in which administration officials point to numerous statements on their part -- made before the invasion started -- which warned that the conflict might be long and hard.
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# Posted 9:55 PM by David Adesnik  

ALL TALK: Here is some of the latest anti-American vitriol from the Arab world:
"America has killed thousands of Iraqi children," said Hassan, 34, in this small town an hour's drive north of Cairo, the Egyptian capital. "They want to destroy Islam as a religion."

From his hairdressing salon in Amman, Jordan, Abdullah Alami, 37, said he believes the United States started the war to steal truckloads of oil for Israel. In glittery downtown Beirut, Hani Dannawi, 28, a bank employee, said he thinks the war is a ploy by the United States to colonize the Middle East; he thinks Syria and Lebanon will be next.
I'm sure all these folks believe what they are saying and that their statements are fairly representative of local opinion. But all they do is talk. No protests. No sending humanitarian aid to Iraq. No violence.

I'm beginning to think that Arab opposition to the invasion of Iraq is like Arab support for the Palestinians: something everyone can agree on but that no one wants to do anything about. That's why there's no backlash against the war and why Arab governments never do much about the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

And still the experts call for appeasing the Arab street...
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# Posted 9:43 PM by David Adesnik  

THE USUAL SUSPECTS: Afghanistan. Warlords. Problems.
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# Posted 9:26 PM by David Adesnik  

TRAGEDY: An explosion in a Baghdad marketplace has left scores of dead and wounded. The apparent cause was a missile strike, though there is no word on whether it was American or Iraqi.

One thing I can't figure out: Are Iraqis still required to have a government 'minder' present when speaking to foreign journalists? I can't see why this rule would've changed, but there is no mention of it in the WaPo article on the explosion. I want to find out, though, since there is no way of telling whether the victims' anguished accusations of American cruelty are a sincere reaction, or just something staged for the benefit of Saddam's thought police.
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# Posted 5:53 PM by David Adesnik  

IN CASE YOU WEREN'T SURE that Rachel Corrie was anti-Israel rather than pro-human rights, it now turns out that a senior member of Islamic Jihad has been arrested at the Jenin headquarters of ISM, the activist group to which Corrie belonged.

Link via Best of the Web.
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# Posted 12:22 PM by David Adesnik  

THE SOUTHERN FRONT: Judging by your respones to my posts, the most important issue facing America today is anti-Semitism in the Southern United States. Here are some of more of the interesting thoughts and stories you have sent my way:

Briefly, RL points out that Jim Moran is originally from Boston, and not a native Southerner.

ET from Colorado writes that
I haven't actually lived in the South and am in no position to comment on the day to day incidence of anti-Semitism there. Still, I happen to know that synagogues, JCCs and Jewish philanthropy are highly developed in the South and I think there are a couple of ways to interpret this phenomenon in terms of how it relates to anti-Semitism.

On the one hand, this robust Jewish associational life seems to suggest that Jews feel confident enough in their safety to build significant parts of their social lives around Jewish communal institutions. I wonder if Jews in the midwest (outside of Chicago/Skokie) and northern plains states share such a willingness to organize and identify this freely on the basis of their Jewish identity.

On the other hand, it should be recognized that churches are the focal point of a lot of social activity in the South. This state of affairs more or less compels Jews to establish separate institutions and charities of their own, since they can't, or more likely today--don't, want to belong to explicitly Christian ones. That's one reason why we see very active JCCs and Jewish Federations in the South. In fact, for many years, Tulsa, OK has had the distinction of being the highest per capita giver to the UJC (United Jewish Communities--the largest Jewish philanthropy) of any city in the country. In second place? Greensboro, NC.

You can read about it for yourself here and here.

I wouldn't call this current situation anti-Semitism (though that's probably what led to it), but in some ways it surely resembles conditions in other places where Jews were historically segregated, shunned, or
otherwise never really "fit in". Interwar Poland had many Jewish schoolsthat belonged to a variety of educational streams. So too did Morocco. In Argentina, to this day, the social lives of many Jews center around Jewish social clubs called "Hebraicas".

The upshot of all of this is a robust Jewish associational life. These Jewish institutions promote Jewish identity, culture and education and might help stem the tide of intermarriage (though I know there are mixed feelings about whether this should be an explicit goal).

A troubling question, then, is whether social marginalization might actually give rise to stronger Jewish communities that provide more services and are better poised to address communal Jewish concerns,
including responding to anti-Semitism.

I think this state of affairs can be tolerated as long as it doesn't block Jews' access to political participation, economic opportunities or civic involvement. There may be a parallel here with black churches and
historically black colleges, which also trace their origins to intolerance by the white majority, but have today become effective platforms for expressing communal interests and are springboards for articipation in public affairs.

Still, the question remains: In places with a legacy of intolerance, is it "healthy" to foster continued segregation?
A good question. I wish I had the answer. Moving on, TN writes in that
I too grew up in South Carolina, in a small town called Edgefield (pop. 3000) in the western piedmont area. I live in Atlanta now.

I have to concur with your other Southern correspondents. Anti-semitism just wasn't a factor I ever noticed. Nor did I ever hear even casual anti-jewish sentiments expressed anywhere else in piedmont or low country South Carolina (where most of my extended family lived). It may be that anti-semitic feelings were more widely spread and more deeply felt than I knew, but if so no one ever bothered expressing them, and so far as I know they don't now. Further, I've got truckloads of cousins in South Georgia, and it's not anything I ever heard down there, either.

I was going to point out Sol Blatt myself -- his son is still around, a retired federal court judge. However, I think his son converted to episcopalianism (if that can be called a "conversion"). I might be
wrong about that, it may have been his grandson that converted. That would make sense, because Episcopalians were (and are) very prominent in the S.C. social & political circles, so such a conversion would have advantages.

Sol Blatt did not go out of his way to hide his jewishness -- it was no secret, nor something covered up. I've heard stories of him being caught at stump speeches and other political rallies eating pork
barbecue, and being teased about, to which which he had a stock response, with a wink -- Pork?!?? I thought this was goose!!! Back then, it seems, barbecue and politics weren't wholly separable if you
were serious about either.

There had been a number of jews that lived in my home county (Edgefield), who arrived in the later 19th century as travelling pedlers who settled down as brick&mortar merchants. One of the 19th century
storefronts in my home town has a stained glass strip that reads "Israel Mukashy". When I was a kid it was run as a dry-goods store by a Mr. Rubenstein, (or was it "stien"?) who always had a piece of sour apple super-bubble bubblegum for the kids. He and his wife were about the only jews around by then -- most of the younger jews had left for larger towns and different careers before I was born. In retrospect, he bore one classic jewish physical stereotype: an enormous hook nose. However, back then I didn't know enough about jews in general to be aware that this was a stereotypical feature, nor would have any of my friends. Besides, Mr. Tompkins in the store a few doors down, who wasn't jewish, had an even bigger nose that looked like a burst section of grapefruit. The point being that, other than knowing Mr. Rubenstein was jewish, that he & his wife had to go to Augusta for Temple, and that Mrs. Rubenstein cooked some tasty but unusual food, you wouldn't have noticed anything that distinctly set him off from anyone else in town.

I do know of an ugly episode that occurred in Marietta, Georgia, in 1913. A young jewish man named Leo Frank was accused of murdering a young girl and ended up getting lynched, apparrently the only known lynching of a jew anywhere in the United States.

However, it doesn't seem that Frank's jewishness was the only thing that did him in -- there was probably some class resentment involved, too, since the workers at the factory Frank supervised were probably poorer and less educated than he. Further, he was a jewish yankee which was all the worse -- but that's another story.
If memory serves, Frank was accused of murdering Mary Phagan. I only know that because one of the networks ran a made-for-television movie on the subject when I was in grade school. Naturally, this is one of the only films I know of that says much about Southern Jewish life. The others are all about civil rights and the murders of Schwerner, Goodman and Cheney. So perhaps what we're beginning to see is that Hollywood (and my own ignorance) are responsible for Northern Jews' perceptions of Southern anti-semitism.

But what about anti-Semitism elsewhere in the US? MR writes that
I've lived all over the U.S. (courtesy of the U.S. Army) and have found some of the worst anti-semitism in the Pacific Northwest, especially the Seattle area. It was so bad there I told my husband if he ever got orders for that place again he could go alone. Never had any problems in the South, but haven't lived in the deep south, although I feel North Carolina was south enough. It seems like a lot of anti-semitism comes out of the North East these days, does Al Sharpton ring a bell? Now I am happily living in San Antonio, Texas, one of the nicest places in the country (and I ought to know!).
I'm a fan of San Antonio as well, having visited briefly while I worked in Texas. SA is now, of course, a major landmark in the blogosphere thanks to Sean-Paul Kelley. And yes, Al Sharpton does ring a bell, but I think I mentioned in one of my earlier posts that this is a discussion of white anti-Semitism. If we start crossing color-lines, my inbox will surely overflow. Maybe once things calm down in the Middle East we can have an open thread about the Reverend Al.

On a lighter note, MR writes in with the following anecdote:
The first person on my mother's side of the family to immigrate to America was a man named Moses Sauer, a German Jew. For reasons lost to history he went straight to Shreveport, LA where he was promptly conscripted into the Confederate Army. He served and eventually got an honorable discharge (the papers still exist). Anyway, after his discharge he went back to Shreveport. His eventual family split up, with some staying in LA and others moving to NYC (my ancestors).

Fast forward to about 20 years ago, when we met some distant relatives still living in Shreveport, still Jewish and very southern. They were buffont blondes. I was 8 or 9, and one of them, as older Jewish women have done since time began, reached down, gave my cheek a good pinch, and said in a perfect southern drawl, "y'all so meshugge." I can't remember but I think I could hear the theme of the Twilight Zone in the background.
MR, y'all so meshugge!!!

Last but not least, SG, a close friend of mine from Tennessee, asks
Anti-semitism in the South? Didn't we talk about this a million times? I find it interesting that in Berkeley, I'm getting attacked daily for being Jewish because that's apparently why we're at war. Yep, that's right Berkeley, California, liberal bastion. Meanwhile, no one is hassling my parents or friends in Tennessee at all about this. And yes, there are plenty of folks against the war there. Or how about recent events at Yale? I can handle residual ignorance (like the story about the hitchhiker who was asked to see his horns), that can be corrected. What is terrrifying to me is the educated masses deciding to buy the myth of Jewish puppeteering.
Sad but true. Thankfully, Berkeley is a world unto itself. And when anti-Semitism raises its head at Yale, I think we can rest assured that it will be beaten down swifly.

For those of you who want to know even more about Southern Jewish life, both TG and BL recommend Alfred Uhry's play, The Last Night of Ballyhoo. When it comes to London, I'm there.

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# Posted 10:26 AM by Patrick Belton  

I'M OUTTA HERE: That's it for me for the week - I'm headed off to P-town to perform best-manly duties. (And no, sorry, the link isn't to a central New Jersean strip club.) See you guys Monday!
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# Posted 9:23 AM by Patrick Belton  

A NEO-CON, A CENTRIST, AND A LIBERAL WALK INTO A BAR: None of them think the U.S. war in Iraq is driven by idealism. Sound like a bad joke? Except I was out with these three guys last night. All three of them are perceptive recent graduates from Yale and Harvard, currently working in fast-track government positions as aides in the executive and legislature. And the cincher is, they're all dead wrong. Whatever you think about the precise amount of risk involved in the administration's strategy - a matter that's now passed into the purview of historians - there's an unmistakable, driving sense of idealism behind the administration's democracy-promotion aims in the region, and it's just truly tragic it hasn't been able to communicate that message better.

How does it start? Frustratingly, it can't really until we take Baghdad - even though in the meantime the way we fight and the rhetoric we use will play an important supportive role. Unfortunately, it's been a trope of conquerors to pass themselves off as liberators as well ever since Alexander wept over there being no further worlds to conquer. We only convince the world if today's successors to the Seljuk and Mongol cavalries arrive in ancient Baghdad with Jefferson and the Federalist in our back pockets, and the cash and political commitment to the Iraqi people to back it up. The U.S.'s historical record is fortunately promising on our ability to deliver: but there's no avoiding it, our moral credibility as an idealistic nation depends on our giving a great deal of thought now to making New Iraq a durable democracy. So, herewith, a promissory note: I'll be using this space in the coming weeks to collate and analyze what's being said - in government, think tanks, universities, and the blogosphere - about constructing democratic institutions for the people of Iraq. Feel free to e-mail me your forwards and thoughts. And then let's show the world American conquerors really are liberators too.
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# Posted 7:48 AM by Patrick Belton  

STARTLING GAZE OF THE OTHER: So my apartment complex's kindly maintenance man, Ramiro, walks in on me at 10 am after a long night of writing, to see a hair-disheveled, unshaven, shirt-unbuttoned me, with a laptop positioned roughly 12 inches in front of my nose, and a half-empty bottle of Scotch from the night before's writing positioned roughly 6 inches north-by-northwest from the axis joining my nose and the screen. He quickly summed up the situation and asked: "are you a writer?"

Gulp.
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# Posted 5:29 AM by Daniel  

ARMCHAIR QUARTERBACKING. Who would have thought that the Bush Administration would employ at "third way" military strategy? Michael Gordon makes some of the same points as Josh Marshall.
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# Posted 12:15 AM by David Adesnik  

CHICAGO DEEP DISH: Daniel Drezner has a ton of good posts up, on topics ranging from discredited hawks, to weasel-baiting, to bull-headed diplomacy, to de-Ba'athification.
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# Posted 12:06 AM by David Adesnik  

SHARPENING THE KNIVES: If Rumsfeld's strategy doesn't work in Iraq, Josh Marshall is going to look very, very smart.
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Thursday, March 27, 2003

# Posted 11:55 PM by David Adesnik  

SPRITUAL RECONSTRUCTION: Josh Marshall on missionaries in postwar Iraq, plus a few thoughts about military strategy and reconstruction contracts.
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# Posted 11:46 PM by David Adesnik  

OXDEM HAS A FRIEND: I'm feeling like a bit of heel. Right after I write Nick Kristof off as unreadable, he comes up with some of the best advice around for the US government.

[So why was I reading Kristof if I've already said he's unreadable? Because once you say somethig like that, you don't want to have people jumping all over you if you turn out to be wrong. How ironic.]

Anyway, here's what Kristof said:
We doves simply have to let go of the dispute about getting into this war. It's now a historical question, and the relevant issue, for hawks and doves alike, is how we get out of this war (and how we avoid the next pre-emptive war). Americans should be able to find common ground, for all sides dream of an Iraq that is democratic and an America that is again admired around the world. Creating a postwar Iraq that is free and flourishing is also the one way to recoup the damage this war has already done to America's image and interests.
The key words there are "all sides". When Josh and I founded OxDem, we wanted it to rise above partisan distinctions and bring Americans together behind the shared ideal of democracy.

What we've found in practice is that many Democrats who tentatively support the war are unwilling to sign on to our statement of principles because they are afraid of being part of an organization that casual observers so often assume is pro-war and pro-Bush.

Now, we've said time and again that the purpose of OxDem is to stand up for democracy in Iraq and around the world regardless of which party controls the White House or the Capitol. But I do understand that when one is in a hostile environment (yes, Oxford), it's hard to sign on to a controversial position. But we are hoping that one the question of war and peace is over and done with, students' commitment to the shared ideal of democracy will make them reconsider their decision to keep their distance from OxDem.

That is why Kristof's words are so encouraging. If even he can bury the hatchet, then promoting democracy may really become a popular cause.
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# Posted 11:31 PM by David Adesnik  

TOO MANY SECRETS, PART II: Under the cover of war, the President has issued yet another executive order making it harder for ordinary citizens to get access to declassified government documents. For the definitive account of the Bush administration's apalling record of deception on the freedom of information front, see Josh's excellent TNR article from last year.

You know, I really would like to be able to trust the President. He just makes it so damn hard. Where have you gone, Joe DiMaggio?
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# Posted 11:22 PM by David Adesnik  

NO REPRIEVE FOR AMNESTY: Best of the Web takes a swipe at this Amnesty International war crimes report, which suggest that the US hasn't been behaving itself any better than the Iraqis. Click here for a slight different view.
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# Posted 10:59 PM by David Adesnik  

MISSING THE POINT: The WaPo headline reads: "Anti-Hussein Officials Rebuke Unilateral U.S. Battle Strategy; Dissidents Say Failure to Incorporate Iraqis Constitutes 'War of Conquest'". The opposition figures quoted within say exactly what you'd expect.

But no one makes the critical point that by sidelining Iraqi militias, the US avoids taking on political debts that will have to be paid off with postwar concessions. Avoiding such concessions is not just a matter of self-interest, but a way of ensuring that opposition groups cannot translate their fighting strength into special privileges in what should be a democratic Iraq.

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# Posted 10:44 PM by David Adesnik  

BACKHANDED COMPLIMENT: From the WaPo:
...the strapping 19-year-old from Birmingham has a combat tale to tell. Now, beaming a perfect white smile, Maskers guards a cargo warehouse ready to accept humanitarian supplies. His grin is not just evidence that British dental services have improved...
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# Posted 10:37 PM by David Adesnik  

TOO MANY SECRETS: Would it really be that hard for the White House to be a little more forthcoming about its decisions to award large reconstruction contracts to Halliburton and other well-connected firms?
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# Posted 10:30 PM by David Adesnik  

ALL QUIET ON THE WESTERN FRONT: You have no idea how long I've been waiting to use that as the tag line for one of my posts. But now I can, since the WaPo reports that US Special Forces have disrupted Baghdad's control of western Iraq, thus ensuring that it cannot be used to stage missile or unmanned air attacks on Israel, Jordan or Saudi Arabia.

PS Yes, I know the title of Remarque's novel is supposed to be ironic and that I've used it here in a literal sense. So sue me.
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# Posted 10:24 PM by David Adesnik  

POLITICAL THEATER: Bush and Blair held a joint press conference today at Camp David. Since there wasn't much news, the questions and answers given weren't all that suprising. However, the behavior of the press in the absence of any news offers a striking demonstration of how the media thinks of its relationship with the Preisdent.

Here's a list of the questions asked:

1.
"First, you, Mr. Prime Minister. Briefly, Secretary Powell said yesterday that the U.N. should have a role in post-war Iraq, but that the United States should have a significant dominating control of post-Saddam Iraq. How will that kind of talk play in Europe?

And, Mr. President, can you help be understand the timing of this war? You talked yesterday that it'll be--we're far from over; today you said it's going slowly, but surely, we're working our way to our end goal.

Given that the resistance is as strong as it's been in the south and that we have what you call the most hardened, most desperate forces still around Baghdad, are we to assume that this could last months and not weeks and not days.
2.
"For both leaders, if I may? We've, all of us, noted quite a shift in emphasis over the last few days from a hope that this could be over very, very quickly to the military in both countries briefing about months.

My question is really, why do you think that shift has taken place? Did we underestimate the scale of Iraqi resistance, has it been the weather, has it been poor advice at the beginning of the campaign or is it a military question?"
3.
Mr. President, you've raised the possibility of holding Iraqis accountable for war crimes. I'm wondering if now if you could describe what war crimes you think they've committed to date?

And secondly, should the Iraqis be prepared for U.S. retaliation with nuclear weapons if they were to attack coalition forces with weapons of mass destruction?
4.
...could I ask you both, you both ranged over history, the justness of the cause that you believe that this war is. Why is it, then, that if you go back to that history, if you go back over the last century, or indeed recent conflicts of your political careers, you have not got the support of people who've been firm allies, like the French, like the Germans, like the Turkish? Why haven't you got their support?
If one were to sum up the nature of such questions, one could do it in two words: confrontational and predictable. In principle, confrontation is good. Challenges from the press force elected officials to justify controversial decisions and account for notable failures. While somewhat of a turn-off, the snide and condescending tone of most of the question asked demonstrates that even in times of war, Americans' support for the First Amendment is so strong that journalists have the right to grill the President as if he were the defendent in a murder trial.

Unfortunately, the predictable nature of today's questions render their confrontational stance worthless. These are questions that Bush and Blair have answered dozens of times before. This sort of repetition demonstrates a disturbing lack of creativity on the journalists' part.

If the press wants to extract concessions from the President, it has to challenge him on the evidence. Otherwise, press conferences become nothing more than a charade in which journalists pretend to be challenging presidential authority while the President himself gets to say vague but patriotic things such as "This isn't a matter of timetable, it's a matter of victory."

I guess this press conferences sums up how I've been feeling about the media over the past few days. When nothing happens at the front, the press spins it as a lack of progress. While challenge and confrontation are good in principle, this sort of desperate attempt to find bad news only exhausts the press' credibility and makes it harder for it to challenge the government when it really should.

Ultimately, media bias hurts both the press itself and the democratic process. It would simply be better for American democracy if both conservatives and liberals could get behind the press as an institution, thus giving it the prestige necessary to demand greater honesty on the part of elected officials.
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# Posted 7:15 PM by Patrick Belton  

A MAN OF IDEAS AND OF ACTION: Senator Moynihan deserves more expansive commemorating. For now, simply several greatest hits:

Daniel Patrick Moynihan reaffirmed our ideas of the worth of a life in politics and the academy, and showed it was possible not to fall prey to the short-sightedness endemic in either. Instead - scholarly, gutsy, opinionated, eloquent, and an idealist - he bettered everything he touched, and in all his numerous incarnations - and here one can't help thinking of Vishnu and the other country he so loved - he touched pretty much everything. Whether the subject was international affairs, urban development, public architecture, or civil rights, he brought to it trademark intellectual creativity, a determined and stubborn willingness to follow his own best lights, and a sense of national loyalty surpassing the narrow dictates of the logic of party or ideology. I heard him speak several times on the floor of the Senate. I remember thinking that, as a politician, he showed us the Senate could be a place for dignified, erudite debate worthy of the parliamentary tradition of Tulius Cicero, Burke, and his own chamber's Daniel Webster - a place where equally public-spirited men and women could argue different sides of issues, without impugning their interlocutors' virtue or motives, with eloquent speeches and searching intellects, and with loyalty to a Republic rather than to a faction. Personally, I also thought then that as a coethnic, he gave a dignified public face to an ethnicity too often associated on these shores with the philistinisms of green beer and mediocre midwestern colleges' football teams. When Moynihan spoke, though, it was Parnell and O'Connell who came to mind, and sometimes even Joyce and Muldoon.

He used the eloquence of the Senate well: every day of Terry Anderson's captivity at the hands of Hezbollah in Lebanon, he went to the Senate floor to remind his fellow senators, in a quiet sentence, just how many days it had been. He was a patriot: explaining to his aghast friends and wife why he, a Democrat, had accepted a position in the Nixon administration as assistant to the president for urban affairs, he explained when the president of the United States asks, a good citizen agrees to help. Yet he had no truck with the culture of government secrecy, which he saw as antithetical to a vibrant democracy. When he saw, at the close of his life, barriers and metal detectors proliferating around what for him had to be an open city, he dedicated his last op-ed for the Post to decrying it.

Particularly comforting, for those of us writing theses, is the anecdote the NYT lifted from a 1979 biography, where two college friends caught a dissertation-writing Pat in his room in 1952: "Impressed at first with his elaborate file cabinet full of index cards, they found that most of the cards were recipes for drinks rather than notes on the International Labor Organization." It was indeed often over a lifted glass that the prolific author Moynihan poured out his best stories. His eloquence, though, could also be spontaneous and respond perfectly to the needs of a moment. The NYT caught a quote by Moynihan from the television coverage of President Kennedy's assassination: "I don't think there's any point in being Irish if you don't know that the world is going to break your heart eventually. I guess we thought we had a little more time." He added softly, "So did he."

The Washington Post's editorial page calls Daniel Patrick Moynihan "a man of large ideas in a city of tacticians." In a time in which they are in alarmingly short supply in both politics and the academy, this decent, good man brooks no hesitation in standing up for us as that rare quantity, a role model. Godspeed ye, Senator.
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# Posted 11:32 AM by Patrick Belton  

I DIDN'T DO IT!: A 30-foot wide sinkhole gulps down a portion of M Street in Georgetown. This from the same street that brought you the "exploding manhole cover" cocktail which was so popular in Georgetown bars summer before last....
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# Posted 7:11 AM by Daniel  

URBAN WARFARE PART TWO. Heavily influenced by his knowledge of the 1993 battle for Mogadishu, Mark Bowden opines on the Battle of Baghdad.
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Wednesday, March 26, 2003

# Posted 10:27 PM by David Adesnik  

THE ONION MOCKS OXBLOG: Or something like that.
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# Posted 10:11 PM by David Adesnik  

NOT SO FAST: It seems I got the wrong impression of Tony Blair's stance on Iraq. While he wants the UN to have a role in postwar Iraq, he is no rush for that role to begin. Same goes for Colin Powell. (Links via Command Post.)
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# Posted 10:00 PM by David Adesnik  

AGONIST ON AGONY: "5:07 EST Developing story right now is that the 'bomb' that went off in the [Baghdad] market earlier is left too small a crater for coalition weapon. It was only 2 feet deep. Suspected to be an Iraqi air defense weapon. The weapon, repeat, does not resemble any coalition 'penetration weapon'."

Iraqi sources claimed earlier that the bomb was Allied ordance.
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# Posted 9:51 PM by David Adesnik  

URBAN WARFARE: What the odds are and how to win.
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# Posted 9:45 PM by David Adesnik  

NYT POLL SPINNING: Phillippe has the story. Meanwhile, Eugene takes the AP to task for playing similar games.
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# Posted 7:29 PM by David Adesnik  

HUMAN SHIELD EXPOSED: Before heading off to Israel last week, I mentioned that I was on a mission as a human shield. I probably wouldn't have said that if I'd known that an actual human shield was about to die in the Gaza Strip.

Her name was Rachel Corrie. She died after being run over by an Israeli bulldozer. But was it murder, negligence, or an accident provoked by Corrie's own recklessness? The more newspapers you read, the more confused you get.

In a relatively balanced account, the WaPo quotes both Corrie's fellow human shields as well as Israeli military officials responsible for investigating her death. Each one says exactly what one would expect him or her to say. (There's a similar article in the LA Times.)

While in Israel, I didn't have a chance to read the Post, but instead relied on the Herald Tribune, which my hotel distributed to guests every morning. It's account, borrowed from the NYT, suggests that Corrie's resistance was much more passive than other articles made it out to be. According to its first sentence,
An Israeli Army bulldozer crushed to death an American woman Sunday who had knelt in the dirt to discourage the armored vehicle from destroying a Palestinian home in the southern Gaza Strip, witnesses and hospital officials said. [Sorry, no permalink.]
The key word, of course, is 'knelt', which suggests that Corrie had deliberately placed herself in the bulldozer's path and then stopped moving. The word 'knelt' also has religious connotations, which bring to mind the passive resistance of Mahatma Gandhi.

The WaPo's opening sentence describes Corrie as 'crouching', but also quotes a protester who describes her as 'kneeling'. In contrast, the LA Times quotes witnesses who say that Corrie was standing.

The accounts I read in Israel, from the Jerusalem Post and Ha'aretz, were entirely different however. According to the J-Post,
Richard Summers, 31, from England, told The Jerusalem Post that Corrie confronted the D-9 as it slowly rumbled toward the Masri home. Trying to stop the machine, she scaled a steep pile of earth that the bulldozer had plowed up with its blade.
"She was level with the cabin and she was wearing an orange florescent vest," Summers said. "There's no way the driver could have missed her."

Corrie then fell backward, tumbling down the mound and out of sight, but instead of stopping, the driver kept going forward for another 15 meters. The pile of earth enveloped her and she was crushed. All the while, Summers said, "we were yelling over the megaphone for the driver to stop."
According to Ha'aretz,
Rachel Corey [sic], 23, from Olympia, Washington, was killed when she ran in front of the bulldozer to try to prevent it from destroying a house, doctors in Gaza said...

Greg Schnabel, 28, from Chicago, said the protesters were in the house of Dr. Samir Masri.

"Rachel was alone in front of the house as we were trying to get them to stop," he said. "She waved for bulldozer to stop and waved. She fell down and the bulldozer kept going. We yelled 'stop, stop,' and the bulldozer didn't stop at all. It had completely run over her and then it reversed and ran back over her."
Three different protesters, three different accounts. Strange how only one of them -- the most damaging one -- made it into the American papers.

I really have no idea what happened to Rachel Corrie. The most plausible speculation I've read is from No Cameras, a blog run out of Corrie's hometown, Olympia, Wa. NC observes that
Having spent a fair amount of time around armoured vehicles, however, I'm not convinced [Corrie's megaphone] would have made much difference. IDF bulldozers--in this case a Caterpillar D9--are large, noisy and heavily armoured, and the driver is probably wearing hearing protection against the engine noise; you'd probably need Nigel Tufnel's custom amps to make yourself heard inside the cab from outside. Moreover, the view from the cab is severely restricted...The most plausible scenario, to my mind, is that the driver advanced slowly, expecting Ms. Corrie to chicken out in time; she lost her footing and in doing so was lost to the driver's view. Assuming she'd gotten out of the way, he continued moving forward, with fatal results.
Regardless of the uncertaintly surroudning Corrie's death, what we do know for sure is that the Western media have given it a distinct anti-Israel spin. For example, the Christian Science Monitor has described Corrie as a "peace activist" even though she has a habit of burning American flags while participating in rallies in the Gaza strip. (See Tal G. for more links.)

Of course, one can burn American flags and still be a peace activist. But when one marches with Hamas and PA supporters in the Gaza Strip while burning an American flag, that's a little different.

Far worse than descriptions of Corrie as a peace activist, however, is the misuse and mislabeling of photographs in a way that suggests her death was the product of Israeli intentions. For details, click here and here.

But why am I getting so worked up about all of this? After all, anti-Israel bias in the media (not to mention outright anti-Semitism on the left) is hardly news. But it happened while I was there. And people have asked me what I know about it, or what Israelis thought about it. When I respond to such questions, I don't want to profess ignorance. I want to say something that makes a difference.

UPDATE: Hmm. Even Atrios thinks Corrie was no victim.
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# Posted 6:52 PM by David Adesnik  

THIS MUST STOP: JAD sends in a link to an article about a pro-war rally in Minnesota. Most of what's in it good news, but at one point there was disgusting display of anti-Muslim prejudice.
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# Posted 6:42 PM by David Adesnik  

A WAYWARD "THE" is all that separates the headline of yesterday's London Times from identical headlines in the Telegraph and Guardian. Thanks to MV, of the long lost Visser View, for pointing this out.

Also, Josh points out that front page images of yesterday's British papers are available here. [Warning: Only scroll up and not down after accessing the front page images.]
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# Posted 6:33 PM by David Adesnik  

GAYS AND THESPIANS: Asparagirl has very interesting post up about how hard it is for gay soldiers to comply with the "don't ask, don't tell" policy. Rather than simply saying nothing, gay soldiers often have to engage in elaborate charades in order to persuade others that they are straight. As Brooke points out, this is the last thing a soldier should have to think about in the midst of fighting a war.

Meanwhile, MB writes that he's
not privy to what generals think about such things, but as a former Marine officer who has argued in support of "don't ask, don't tell" I can assure you that my own concern has never been anything but unit cohesion. And I don't recall ever hearing my peers express the idea that gays are somehow less patriotic or loyal Americans, on average, than straights. (But I must admit that this isn't an issue that was ever a particularly hot topic of discussion among my peers, that I can recall--even when Clinton first took office.) Perhaps they were concealing their true beliefs about the issue, but I'm not sure why they would have bothered to do so when talking with peers who agreed with their conclusions.

This is all anecdotal, of course; take it for what it's worth.
I hope MB is right. If he is, the military should be ready to let open gays serve once this war is over.
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# Posted 4:40 PM by Patrick Belton  

WILSON, JACKSON, AND BISMARCK, MAKE WAY FOR BLAIR, RUMSFELD, AND "CHIRACO-PUTIN:" Interesting op-ed piece in the NYT several days ago by spousal college advisor Timothy Garton Ash, in which Mr. Garton Ash compares the grand-strategic orientations he can't resist dubbing as "Rumsfeldian," "Blairite," and (my personal favorite) "Chiraco-Putinesque." Garton Ash, noting that the world's more powerful powers have split into maritime and continental powers (the US, UK, and Australia vs. France, Germany, Russia, and China), notes his hope that Blair's more multilateral approach will be the signpost of the future, in preference either to the U.S. administration's willingness to act alone, if necessary, in promoting democracy and fighting international terrorism, or to Chirac and (at times) Putin's quijotic hopes to create a alternate pole for the purpose of balancing unchecked U.S. power.

The argument is fine as far as it goes: in the post-WWII period, international institutions have served U.S. interests more cheaply, with greater legitimacy, and probably with a much higher track record of success than the U.S. could arguably have achieved if it had had to further its interests and values supported only by ad-hoc coalitions and its own and its allies' power. However, Garton Ash's argument fails to deal with what happens in the scenario in which comparatively minor world powers, such as France, motivated by dislike of the U.S. precisely because of the latter's superiority in state strength, then use their outsized power in international institutions (relative to their actual economic or military power) either to blackmail or to veto the U.S.'s attempts to act in the international community's interests and provide global security, a public good. Garton Ash's answer seems simply to be that Blair should have tried harder to court continental support, rather than jumping so quickly into an alliance with the U.S. - an argument which sounds specious. (Given the current governments in Paris and Berlin, a coyer Blair could have prolonged the process of diplomacy - itself a continental victory - but it is unlikely that he would have been able to gather their support for a war on Iraq.)

So what does happen in that scenario? Is it just barely possible that, within the constraints of a situation like that, the U.S. might have taken precisely the smartest course open to it- that is, creating a credible threat that it would indeed in the future go outside those international institutions, and therefore completely deprive minor countries from their power over the U.S. that derives strictly from those institutions (and the U.S.'s continued participation within them) rather than from their own national power? The U.S. would then have created strong incentives for minor countries not to use their vetoes in New York or Brussels for blackmail to secure side payments or as a means to keep their disliked, stronger neighbor Gulliver from ever using its military at all, save when directed from Paris. Were they to do so, those countries would succeed only in pushing the United States out of those institutions, and theeby robbing themselves of the outsized global influence that precisely those institutions confer on them. For a country which is roundly derided for its lack of tactical skill in diplomacy, this would have been quite an intelligent and long-sighted gambit indeed.

(P.S.: Entirely incidentally, if in the first sentence you noticed that there's been a high frequency of significant-other-directed nods in my recent posts - a phenomenon also noticeable in the posts of fellow DC-resident Andrew Sullivan ("Sullivinian," for Garton Ash?) - then one might perhaps draw the conclusion that perhaps the Federal City is still conducive to amorousness, even with the Clinton administration no longer in town any more.)
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# Posted 3:22 PM by Patrick Belton  

I TAKE IT ALL BACK: I WAS WRONG! Well, at least my comments on D.C. weather. Just yesterday, I was bragging about it to my friends in southern California, but today - inexplicably - there's suddenly more rain than even in an Adam Durwitz song. (Incidentally, today I was for some reason inspired to buy my ticket back to England for mid-April.) Thankfully, 89.3 FM used the downturn in, errr, downpour as an occasion to broadcast a half-hour of wonderful rain-themed jazz about 2:30 this afternoon. Thanks!
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# Posted 11:20 AM by David Adesnik  

GAY AND STRAIGHT TO BAGHDAD: Suddenly, the military has stopped discharging soldiers on grounds of homosexuality. While refusing to admit it, the military seems to know that gay soldiers fight just as hard and are just as patriotic.

UPDATE: Reader EG makes a good point:
The military's "don't ask, don't tell" policy is wrong but it does not reflect the assumption that gay soldiers are less patriotic or fight less hard. It is premised on the assumption that the presence of gay soldiers undermines unit cohesion. The more telling point you could have made was that the military seems to tolerate the presence of gay soldiers when their units are under fire, i.e., when unit cohesion is most critical.
I mostly agree, but I still think that the unit cohesion argument is often a cover for unjustified suspicions that gay soldiers are less committed to American interests than their heterosexual counterparts are.
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# Posted 11:03 AM by David Adesnik  

THE UN IN IRAQ: Blair says the UN will have a critical role in reconstruction and that the American President supports him on this point.

The French and German ambassadors to the UN also seem pretty adamant about this point. So much for all those critics who said that the US has to get French and German support for an invasion so that their governments are willing to take responsibility for reconstruction. Au contraire; the absence of a second resolution has made the French and Germans even more concerned about being locked out again.
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# Posted 10:59 AM by David Adesnik  

VISUAL SUMMARY: The WaPo has a well-drawn map that charts the progress of Allied forces, along with explanatory notes at the side.
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# Posted 10:56 AM by David Adesnik  

MISFIRE: Iraq is reporting that an American missile hit a crowded market, killing 14 people. The army has yet to confirm.
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# Posted 8:53 AM by Patrick Belton  

ANSWER TO JOSH: In that case, what you need to do is (mis)attribute it to somebody else, and then sneer at it. For instance: Josh, you could change that sentence in your thesis to: "As Belton so infelicitously said, 'you know, the common law is like a river, ever changing as it goes.'"
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Tuesday, March 25, 2003

# Posted 9:22 PM by Daniel  

BACK FROM RUSSIA WITH LOVE AND ANECDOTES. I just returned from a trip to St. Petersburg and Moscow. Russia is so full of contradictions and hope, I don't even know where to begin. Of course my opinion is biased--I am a spoiled 24 year old with no Russian language skills, which impeded my ability to truly interact with the "Russian street" as one famous NY Times columnist would put it. My sample size is about 20 or 30. Recognizing these limitations, here are a few of my thoughts:

I didn't feel any outright hostility toward me based on my American citizenship (I think most of the hostility was based on my obnoxious personality), but two anecdotes stick out: at a bar, a girl came and sat down at our table, and we smiled and asked her where she was from. She replied, "Baghdad." The next day, we went to an outdoor shopping district and a salesman came up to us and said, "You are American? I am Iraqi!" That was about it. Most of the Russians I spoke to about the war felt that America was violating international law and its power, if unchecked, was "dangerous". The idea of America as the world's lone superpower came up often--one Russian friend of a friend told me that Russians feel threatened because they were a "fake superpower" and seeing a real superpower exercise its strength was unsettling.

Many of the Russians with whom i interacted are at best "hostile to darker skinned minorities" and at worst downright racist. The adjectives they used to describe Chechens are eerily similar to those early white Americans used to describe (American) Indians: "uncivilized", "untrustworthy", "violent", "barbaric", "unreformable" and so on. The friend with whom I stayed told me to expect this, but it was still shocking to hear it. I even got a "some of my best friends are Chechen--but these ones are not like the others" comment from one Russian woman. When i asked her if Russians were anti-Chechen, she said, "How could we be--they own all the hotels and have power in this city." We took a day trip from Moscow, and we told our tour guide that we were studying near London. She said, "London is nice, but of course you have that problem with the blacks. But they are not as bad as the negroes in America--they are Indian....the blacks, they go to restaurants and leave a mess everywhere, it's horrible." During lunch she told us that she liked America--she thought it was a very well run country, but that "there is the problem with the negroes. What a disaster." All of this was quite disconcerting.

Traveling with a Marine and Army officer while our country is at war has provided me with an entirely new perspective on it. They help me with the technical aspects of the war: "Dan, generals are ranked brigadier (one star), major (two stars), lieutenant (three stars), and general (four stars)." Little things like this help immeasurably when watching a press briefing. I could also see their own ambivalence and feelings of helplessness while watching everything on CNN. They are on scholarships in England until July. Until they return to America for training, they have to watch and read about their classmates and friends' experiences in a war in which both of them would likely have served.

It was a wonderful trip, save for the sub-freezing temperature throughout most of it....I never thought I would be looking forward to the weather back in England.
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# Posted 8:54 PM by David Adesnik  

SEAN-PAUL SUPERSTAR: The NYT has an in-depth review of war coverage in the media. Leading off its section on blogs is an interview with none other than Sean-Paul Kelly, aka The Agonist.

Definitely read the section about Sean-Paul, which also mentions the Command Post. Let me just say that long before the NYT described Sean-Paul as a "mastermind", OxBlog wrote that
"The Agonist" is the nom de blog of a fellow student of International Relations who has traveled the world in search of truth, enlightenment, and investment capital. Sean-Paul has even taught English in South Korea, which perhaps explains why his posts [on the subject] are so much more intelligent than those of the elder Democratic statesmen who polemicize in the NY Times.
We knew quality when we saw it.
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# Posted 7:42 PM by David Adesnik  

NO MORE MR. NICE GUY? Dan Simon thinks that Jacob Levy and myself are wrong about the innocence of enemy soldiers.

Steve Sturm thinks the Allies are just being too nice, period.
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# Posted 7:22 PM by David Adesnik  

SLEIGHT OF HAND: While this administration seems fundamentally incapable of being honest about budget deficits, one would have hoped for some straight talk about the costs of war. Don't bother.
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# Posted 7:19 PM by David Adesnik  

WITH FRIENDS LIKE THESE: Egypt has begun to torture anti-war protesters.
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# Posted 7:04 PM by David Adesnik  

BRITISH POLLS: Here are some more details about the poll I mentioned yesterday.

In addition to majorities among Tory and Labor voters, a plurality of Lib Dems (45%-41%) now support the war. As in the United States, men are much more supportive of the war than women.

There are pluralities or majorities supporting the war in all age brackets except for the youngest, those aged 18-24. That fact actually surprised me quite a bit, since I tend to assume that anti-war sentiment reflects vivid memories of the devisive and destructive conflicts of the Vietnam era.

But perhaps those Britons old enough to remember Vietnam know that this war is very different. Only those of us who had the privilege of growing up in the aftermath of the Cold War are susceptible to the belief that the enemies of the West can be brought down without the threat of violence.

If you download the full results of the poll, you can find even more interesting information. For example, Guardian readers are against the war, 66-25. But what's really surprising is that readers of the Financial Times are against the war 58-34. (Only 2% of respondents read the FT, however, in contrast to 8% who read The Guardian.)

Anyway, hats off to The Guardian for putting all this 'bad' news on its front page.



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# Posted 6:43 PM by David Adesnik  

MORE FISK: Just when you thought he couldn't be any stupider, he outdoes himself again. Today, Robert Fisk compares Saddam to Stalin.

But wait, you say, isn't that a pretty accurate comparison? Sure it is...unless it is meant as praise for Saddam.

But wait, you say, how could a comparison with Stalin ever be considered praise? Don't worry, it can. After all, Stalin did hold out against the Wehrmacht for more than two years at a time when military experts predicted the fall of Moscow within six weeks.

To be fair, Saddam has imitated the opening moves of the Soviet defensive campaign of 1941, i.e. lose every battle and retreat to your capital. Now all he has to do is hold out against the world's most powerful military for another one year and three hundred fifty-nine days...
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# Posted 6:33 PM by David Adesnik  

THE DUBIOUS PLURAL: "Undaunted By Losses, Allies Push On Towards Baghdad" -- five-column headline, The Independent.

If you have a copy of the Independent's print edition, you'll notice that above this headline, there are three smaller headlines, the first of which reads "British Soldier Killed in Action". Given that only one soldier was killed, shouldn't the main headline read "Undaunted by Loss, Allies Push on Towards Baghdad"?

Then again, I'm probably wrong on technical grounds. It is almost certain that some other soldier lost his life within the same 24-hour period as the first British combat fatality. But the juxtaposition of the two headlines is still absurd.

While Americans are used to thinking of The Guardian as the ancestral home of liberal media bias, that paper has been rather moderate since the war started while the Independent has become the Al-Jazeera of the West. Again, let us savor the moment.
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# Posted 6:18 PM by David Adesnik  

HELL FROZEN OVER: "Battle for Baghdad Begins" -- five-column headline, The Daily Telegraph. "Battle for Baghdad Begins" -- five-column headline, The Guardian. [Note: You have to see the actual print editions to know that these are the headlines. There is no indication on the respective papers' websites.]

I guess the old adage is true; war brings a nation together. God knows the next time these two papers will have identical headlines. I'm curious whether this sort of thing has ever happened before, but I have no idea how to figure it out. For the moment, let's just enjoy this unity while it lasts.
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# Posted 2:44 PM by Patrick Belton  

I CAME, I SAW, I created viable democratic institutions: okay, so it doesn't make for as nice a Latin translation, but obviously U.S. democracy-promotion aims and credibility in the world will take a big hit if we don't start giving some serious thought - and equally hefty political commitment - to how to build durable democratic institutions in post-war Iraq. Who's been thinking about this? One person, for starters, is Joseph Braude, a Yalie and ex-Bernard Lewis advisee, whose book The New Iraq (Basic Books) attempts a tour d'horizon of existing Iraqi institutions (parliamentary, judicial, police, military, and intelligence), their historical backgrounds and bureaucratic cultures, and directions in which they most need to be reformed. I promise to summarize and comment on some of Braude's arguments as soon as I can get my grubby hands on the book. Some students of the area have been poking holes at his arguments (which they've probably read in their free review copies - not that I'm hinting or anything here...), without putting forth any better alternatives. All well and good, but they need to ante up! We'll all be the better off.
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# Posted 1:34 PM by Patrick Belton  

HELLO, AND THANKS to Josh and David for letting me come over and play! For those of you who don't know me (and incidentally, this is equally true for those of you who do know me), I'm a third-year politics and international relations grad student currently enrolled in Oxford's illustrious ph.d.-by-mail program, which for me involves periodic schlepping between a lovely wife in Washington and a thesis supervisor in England who's not as pretty but is very nice anyway. What I'm planning on doing here on Oxblog is taking a few articles each week from recent foreign policy journals, and offering reviews and fiskings of them in which I'll try to point out weaknesses in their facts or thinking, outline diverging perspectives within the academic policy community, and finally put in my two bits about which arguments seem strongest to me in light of promoting U.S. interests and democratic values. I'll start off in the first few weeks by trying to bite off a few pieces each on counterterrorism, Central Asia (because yurts are just cool), democracy promotion, and grand strategy.

But that's all to come. For now, I'm very happy to be over here with you guys! (Especially since I get to do it from drier, warmer, Washington, D.C.....)
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# Posted 12:15 PM by David Adesnik  

ESCALATION: In response the Union Jacks proudly displayed in the windows of both 17 East Avenue and in the windows of my neighbors at no. 15, the folks across the way at no. 32 have decided to put an even larger "Stop the War" placard in their window.

While bigger is often better, I think the folks in no. 32 have embarrassed themselves and their cause by putting up a sign distributed by the Socialist Workers Party.
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Monday, March 24, 2003

# Posted 8:11 PM by David Adesnik  

A MAN WE CAN BE PROUD OF: Lance Cpl. Jose Gutierrez. May he rest in peace.
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# Posted 8:00 PM by David Adesnik  

MORE GOOD NEWS FOR BLAIR: A new poll adds to the existing evidence that a majority of Britons support the war, including a majority of Labour voters.

This striking shift in public opinion is an important reminder that polls can tell us what the public believes, but not how committed it is to its beliefs. Which means, of course, that a majority of Britons may oppose the war once again if it doesn't go well.
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# Posted 7:55 PM by David Adesnik  

HONOR ROLL: Holding the line against the unreadables is Jackson Diehl, who almost never fails to impress.

In today's column, he argues that pro-American Arab dictators know which way the wind is blowing. They have already begun cosmetic democratic reforms to stave off American demands for reform. Diehl suggests how the US can use its leverage with such dictators to transform such cosmetic openings into substantive reforms. Mr. President, I hope you are listening.
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# Posted 7:47 PM by David Adesnik  

WAY OVER THE LINE: Bill Safire says that
The new, Islamic-influenced [Turkish] government of Recep Tayyip Erdogan transformed that formerly staunch U.S. ally into Saddam's best friend.
Unfortunately, one cannot expect American liberals to defend Turkey from such slander the way they did Tom Daschle. In fact, even conservatives defended Daschle.

As I have argued, the Turkish government's failure to win parliamentary support for hosting US troops should be chalked up to incompetence, not malice. (Or American incompetence, if you agree with Josh Marshall.)

In the years ahead, America is going to have learn how to cooperate with Muslim democracies -- some of them allies -- who do not always do what we want even when what we want is morally sound. Intolerance like Safire's is thus extremely dangerous if there is to be any hope of realizing the President's vision of recasting the politics of the entire Middle East.

After all, if we can live with allies like France, there's no reason we can't put with the rest...
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# Posted 7:35 PM by David Adesnik  

ADD HIM TO THE LIST: When writing about foreign policy, Bob Herbert is unreadable.

PS So far I've gotten two objections to putting Krauthammer on my list. Unsurprisingly, not a single reader has objected to my assessments of Krugman, Kristof and Keller. (The KKK of commentary?)
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# Posted 7:28 PM by David Adesnik  

THE UNKNOWN FRONT: Muslim gunmen murdered 24 Hindus in a remote Kashmir village today. The gunmen first overpowered the village's guards and then shot defenseless men, women and children.

This sort of strategy provides a disturbing contrast to that of Palestinian suicide bombers. On the one hand, the Kashmir gunmen were dignified enough to first face down armed guards before attacking civilians. On the other hand, the calculated decision to first overpower the guards and then murder civilians at will is evidence of a brutality reminiscient of the ethnic cleansing in Bosnia, or even of the SS.

Sadly, this brutality will not end for as long as there is military rule in Pakistan. The United States must learn that democracy is our greatest ally in the war on terror.

UPDATE: Glenn Reynolds posted on the Kashmir murders before I did. Good for him!
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# Posted 7:09 PM by David Adesnik  

OR PERHAPS NOT: The NYT is reporting that the port of Umm Qasr is not ready for humanitarian aid shipments. Tommy Franks disagrees, however.

UPDATE: Save the Children and the Red Cross are also warning of a massive humanitarian crisis.
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# Posted 3:16 PM by David Adesnik  

STRANGER THAN FICTION: Thanks to Best of the Web for the links. First of all, it turns out that there was a grenade attack by one US soldier on another during the First Gulf War as well. The attacker was none other than John Allen [Williams] Mohammed, aka The DC Sniper.

Next, it turns out that Russian arms manufacturers have been providing the Iraqis with sophisticated weapons and equipment. The US government has been protesting for some time, but the Russian government responded first with implausible denials and then with extensive delays.

Finally, Maoist rebels in India have been attacking Pepsi factories as well as the usual Coca-Cola targets. As James Taranto points out, the rebels ought to recognize that the enemy of their enemy is their friend...
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# Posted 11:10 AM by David Adesnik  

THE BAD NEWS: While the American media are well-known for presenting every minor setback as a strategic disaster, the following reports are still worth noting:

The NYT reports that Apache helicopters have taken heavy fire near Baghdad while hunting for Iraqi armored division. Interestingly, an American general noted that
in an attack like the one on the helicopters, "you have 10 guys lying on top of a building firing RPG's and small arms. You can go in and bomb that building and reduce it to rubble," but at the potential cost of many civilian lives.
The WaPo reports that the US took unexpectedly heavy casualties in the battle for Nasiriya. 16 soldiers are reported dead.

The closest thing to good news there is that the American people are still firmly behind the war despite a growing sense that it may last longer than expected and involve heavier casualties.
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# Posted 10:58 AM by David Adesnik  

CIVILIAN CASUALTIES: CNN reports that
The Australian navy has been working with the United States to clear Umm Qasr in preparation for humanitarian aid shipments, the commander of Australian forces in the Middle East said Monday.
This development is extremely important. Both an in-house UN study and numerous humanitarian NGOs expect that an invasion of Iraq will result in 100,000-400,000 civlian casualties. However, a critical premise on which this report is based is that the port facilities at Umm Qasr will be disabled, preventing shipments of aid.

While it is still far to early to draw definitive conclusions about civilian casualty counts, we are beginning to see that the UN and NGO projections are nothing more than irresponsible speculations influenced by anti-war prejudice. In short, this is a replay of what happened during the invasion of Afghanistan.
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Sunday, March 23, 2003

# Posted 9:44 PM by David Adesnik  

INNOCENT SOLDIERS: Jacob Levy comments on my post. (And Instapundit links to Jacob Levy.) I have to admit, I think Jacob is right on this one.
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# Posted 9:36 PM by David Adesnik  

FISKING FISK: Why do experts wring their hands about the influence of Al Jazeera when it is the British press that is the source of so much anti-American vitriol? According to a full-page headline in the Sunday edition of the Independent, "This is the Reality of War. We Bomb. They Suffer."

Alongside the headline is a horrific photo of a burnt Iraqi child. The author of the accompanying article is none other than Robert Fisk. After visiting one Baghdad hospital ward, he indignantly declares that the humanitarian consequences of war are intolerable. I have to wonder what he would say if he had the chance to visit one of Saddam torture chambers.

The Independent's full-page headline on Saturday was more subtle than today's, but also more offensive: "Baghdad's Night of Terror". Implying, of course, that Bush and Blair are terrorists. Naturally, Robert Fisk provided 800 words of idiocy to go along with the headline. (For some reason, Fisk's column appears on the Independent's website with a different headline. Check Lexis-Nexis if you want to see the original.)

Highlights included:
Well yes, one could say, could one attack a more appropriate regime? But that is not quite the point. For the message of last night's raid was the same as that of Thursday's raid, that of all the raids in the hours to come: that the United States must be obeyed. That the EU, UN, NATO - nothing - must stand in its way. Indeed can stand in its way.
I guess that's why the US spent six months negotiating at the United Nations.

When it comes to stupidity, however, Saturday's column pales in comparison to today's. In it, Fisk informs us that
The [Iraqi] film [of American POWs] will increase internal support for Saddam Hussein, because it will be regarded as proof that the American-British force will be beaten.
Just how stupid does Fisk think the Iraqi people are? As stupid as Fisk himself is, I guess. Unsurprisingly, Fisk fails to note that making humiliating films of POWs violates the Geneva Convention.

So is there a point to this post? No, not really. Just thought I'd remind all of you what it's like to live in Britian, where Robert Fisk is considered a great journalist.

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# Posted 9:10 PM by David Adesnik  

NOT JUST THE POOR: Charlie Rangel (D-NY) says that America's is sending its poor and black citizens to die for a white government. Yesterday, I pointed out that those who die are more likely to be white. Today, the Angry Clam points out that the casualties in this war have cut across class lines, even including a descendent of Presidents John and John Q. Adams.

NB: Apologies to those of you who think I have been too hard on Charlie, who served his country proudly in Korea.
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# Posted 9:01 PM by David Adesnik  

SECOND IN THE MOTION: Josh already pointed out just how great this op-ed by John McCain is. I wholeheartedly agree. Read it now.
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# Posted 8:55 PM by David Adesnik  

THE BA'ATH MUST GO: Jim Hoagland warns that the Pentagon has begun to consider working with Saddam's generals to restore order in Iraq. That would be sheer idiocy.
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# Posted 8:50 PM by David Adesnik  

BACKLASH AT HOME: Sadly, some Americans have begun to vent their prejudice against citizens of Arab and Middle Eastern descent. While this column gives no sense of how widespread such incidents are, I think it is self-evident that even one such attack is intolerable.
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Saturday, March 22, 2003

# Posted 11:50 PM by David Adesnik  

THE CHARLATAN RETURNS: Our old friend Marc Herold is now counting civilian casualties in Iraq, instead of Afghanistan. Mr. Herold may get bored, however, since the Pentagon has been depriving him of much of anything to count.
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# Posted 11:45 PM by David Adesnik  

HUMAN SHIELDS REPENT: Glenn Reynolds has the story, here and here.
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# Posted 11:35 PM by David Adesnik  

INNOCENT SOLDIERS: As this column reminds us, the life of an Iraqi soldier is also a valuable thing, one which we should not treat with contempt. Many of the young men forced into Saddam's armed forces are as innocent as their civilian counterparts.

Nonetheless, I find it hard to accept that American strategy should focus on minimizing Iraq's military casualties. Were that our approach, fighting a war would simply become impossible. While minimizing opposition casualties is a noble goal, it is one best achieved through the swiftest possible victory.
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# Posted 11:30 PM by David Adesnik  

NOT WORTH FISKING: I tend to think of Bill Keller as being a cut above Nick Kristof and Paul Krugman when it comes to providing a balanced view of foreign affairs. But today's column consists of nothing more than shameless partisan sniping.

While I am inclined to give Keller one more chance, the next time this happens I will add him to my list of unreadables. For the moment, it includes Kristof, Krugman and McGrory on the left, Will and Krauthammer on the right. Dowd almost made it, but her special relationship with Josh makes reading her just a little bit more fun...
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# Posted 11:06 PM by David Adesnik  

IRAQ'S ENRON: The NYT has an in-depth report on the administration's plans to give American corporations the exclusive right to bid on reconstruction contracts for Iraq. While there are good reasons to believe that the private sector can get the job done more efficiently than either the US government, the UN, or the NGO community, the political and economic risks of a market-based strategy are tremendous.

As Enron demonstrated, American corporations are no strangers to massive fraud. If scandals emerge, the administration will be hard-pressed to defend itself from charges that corporate interests are running US foreign policy.

Even worse, American corruption may alienate the people of Iraq while also ensuring that dishonest business practices become part and parcel of the political culture in postwar Iraq. While the Bush administration has never been a fan of strong corporate regulations, that is it's only hope of ensuring that Iraq becomes a prosperous democracy rather than a failed state run by organized criminals.
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# Posted 10:43 PM by David Adesnik  

CHIRAC VS. IRAQ: The French president has declared that he will not support a UN resolution authorizing the British and American governments to administer postwar Iraq.

According to the WaPo's sub-headline, "Chirac Vows to Block U.S., British Attempts to Govern Post-War Iraq." But that is not what Chirac said. In fact, what he opposes is providing international legitimacy to the Anglo-American occupation.

There is no indication that the French will actually do anything to stop the US or UK from administering Iraq, since that might involve paying some of the costs of the occupation. And why pay if the US and UK are going to take care of the occupation on their own?

In a sense, Chirac's attitude toward the occupation is identical to his attitude toward the war: Let the British and Americans do what has to be done while the French insist that they could have done it better.
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# Posted 10:22 PM by David Adesnik  

BEYOND REGIME CHANGE: The Outlook section in this Sunday's WaPo features a series of five essays on the aftermath of the war in Iraq.

As the co-founder of OxDem, I found the essays thoroughly depressing. Taken as whole, the essays' message is that there is little hope for promoting democracy in Iraq or in the Middle East. Fortunately, the logic on which this message rests is absurd to the point of self-contradiction.

Wesley Clark spends most of his time explaining why Iraq is not Japan and why we cannot expect to transform it via military occupation. According to Clark,
The circumstances of Japan and its transformation bear so little resemblance to those of present-day Iraq that both the analogy and the pursuit of a new MacArthur are off the mark. Almost nothing from the lessons of postwar Japan can be applied directly to Iraq, and consequently, neither the approach nor the character of a MacArthur are appropriate for the mission in Iraq. Just consider the facts.

By September 1945, Japan was defeated militarily, culturally and economically...Its armed forces were whipped, with remnants scattered throughout Southeast Asia, China and the Pacific. Its major cities were flattened, its vaunted pride was broken, and its economy was in shambles. It had suffered millions of casualties...
Pardon me, General, but that description of Japan's total defeat seems to fit Iraq perfectly. Except that Iraq's casualties will have come mostly at the hands of Saddam Hussein.

Clark is right to point out that Japan was ethnically unified whereas Iraq is diverse, in both ethnic and religious terms. Yet as Andrew Cockburn points out in his essay, uninformed Western observers have ignored considerable evidence that Sunni, Shi'ite and Kurdish Iraqis are ready to share a single state. Yes, he is referring to you, General Clark.

Adopting a regional perspective, Youssef Ibrahim insists that promoting democracy in the Middle East will accomplish nothing more than bringing violent fundamentalists to power. This, however, is an argument that OxBlog has been in the process of dismantling since December.

Ibrahim draws his evidence mostly from Egypt and Algeria. Had he taken the time to read over Oxblog's in-depth posts on Egypt and Algeria, he might have recognized that the evidence he focuses on is thoroughly misleading.

Ibrahim also mentions in passing both Saudi Arabia and Pakistan, which OxBlog has also profiled as part of its ongoing series on democracy and Islam. Once again, Ibrahim's evidence is far from persuasive.

Perhaps the saddest aspect of Ibrahim's essay is the author's willingness to trust Hosni Mubarak's assertion -- made in private conversation with the author -- that democratic reforms in Egypt will provoke a fundamentalist backlash. Apparently, Ibrahim is so naive that he doesn't recognize how Mubarak and other dictators have systematically exaggerated the fundamentalist threat in order to prevent the United States from demanding democratic reforms.

Yet as OxBlog has insisted time and again, it is the dictators themselves who are holding back the establishment of democracy in the Middle East. While it might be foolish for Mubarak or Assad to suddenly resign and hold elections, there is no reason to think that a gradual transition to democracy would promote a fundamentalist backlash. Rather, a gradual transition will show the people of the Middle East that they do not have to choose between secular dictators and Islamic radicals. Instead, they can reject both and govern themselves.

The final pair of essays in the Post, by Robert Kuttner and Max Boot, provide left- and right-wing approaches to international order in the aftermath of war. What is sad about both essays is that neither focuses on the importance of democratic reform for preventing international conflict.

Kuttner's essay confirms that the anti-war left has no intention of speaking out on behalf of the Iraqi people once the war is over. Rather, it will focus on protesting against "the Bush administration's plans for global hegemony." Forget the starving Iraqi children that were a staple of the protesters' rhetoric. Let someone else take care of them.

While Max Boot's essay is as firmly conservative as Kuttner's is liberal, Boot rises above the simplistic UN-bashing that conservative commentators so often indulge in. His wisest advice to conservatives is not to abandon those allies who voice their resentment of American power. While rhetorical attacks are unpleasant, the behavior of such allies demonstrates that they expect the United States to be the ultimate guarantor of international security. Or as OxBlog put it,
In time, the current Euro-American rift will become yet another memorial to the unprecedented flexibility of alliances between democratic nations. It was that flexibility that ensured our victory in the Cold War, and which will ensure our victory in the war on terror.




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# Posted 9:08 PM by David Adesnik  

HALFWAY TO BAGHDAD: Congratulations, General.
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# Posted 9:02 PM by David Adesnik  

PIZZA VS. TERRORISM: Reader BR has sent in a link to this very clever site which lets you send pizza to Israeli soldiers. The soldiers BR adopted were kind enough to send him a digital photo of themselves, slices in hand.

Yes, the pizza is kosher.
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# Posted 8:48 PM by David Adesnik  

RANGEL WRANGLED? Reader GB thinks it was unfair for OxBlog to call Charlie Rangel (D-NY) a hypocrite. As GB points out, Rangel made clear that his initial support for reinstating the draft was a tactic designed to prevent the US from going to war.

As far as I'm concerned, that doesn't change a thing. Rangel opposes having a volunteer army on the grounds that it lets rich white congressmen send poor black citizens off to die for their country. Yet Rangel was one of just eleven congressmen who voted against a resolution expressing support for the troops but not for the war.

Why, pray tell, won't Congressman Rangel express his support for the selfsame troops whose selfless sacrifice he described as a justification for reinstating the draft? Answer: hypocrisy.

NB: Rangel is actually wrong about black soldiers dying for a white government. While there are more minorities in the army than in society as a whole, they tend to enlist in non-combat units.
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Friday, March 21, 2003

# Posted 11:07 PM by David Adesnik  

UNION JACK: Yesterday I reported that my neighbors at 15 East Avenue are also adamant supporters of overthrowing Saddam. Today, they have chosen to follow the lead of 17 East by hanging a Union Jack in their window. Rule Britannia!
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# Posted 10:41 PM by David Adesnik  

BELGRAVIA DISPATCH is the name of a blog run by Gregory Djerejian. It's well worth a visit, especially recent posts on Tony Blair, the Turkish-Kurdish conflict and why the New York Times is still the home of great journalism. Enjoy!
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# Posted 10:30 PM by David Adesnik  

EXTREMELY DISTURBING if it's true. Via Instapundit.
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# Posted 10:23 PM by David Adesnik  

ANTI-WAR ANTI-SEMITISM: Judith Weiss and Gary Farber dismantle Nick Denton's absurd posts. While Nick's posts are a waste of time, Judith and Gary's are top-notch responses that address an enduring and important issue in American politics. Read them now.
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# Posted 10:07 PM by David Adesnik  

NOT IN MY NAME: OxBlog's Australian correspondent isn't happy with the total absence of rational thought that tends to characterize anti-war protesters. (See this video clip for some evidence.) What makes Patrick's frustration interesting is that he himself is against this war. Or, in his own words:
Slogans and cliches abound in the anti-war movement. One does not have to be Donald Rumsfeld to puncture the mindless litany of one-liners that protesters and activists intone.

"Public opinion says no" is one line. So? Opinion polls say lots of things at any given time. If all public policy were determined in Britain by counting heads rather than by persuasion and electing governments, the death penalty would be reintroduced and asylum seekers would be expelled. Would governments with mandates be expected to roll over at the behest of one million people descending on London to demand the return of hanging?

"War kills" was another. So does leaving brutal dictators in power. Whatever your opinion on this war, both military action or inaction entails the loss of lives. That is the tragedy of these kinds of crises, that we are all morally tainted, there will be blood on the hands of decision-makers whatever they decide. There are no pure or innocent choices - inaction too entails the tolerance of slaughter.

"No blood for oil", that old chestnut, does not so much argue as presume. It presumes an obscene motive that is unproven and simplistic. Kosovo lacks large reserves of oil. As does Afghanistan. If the Bush administration were so beholden to the dictates of oil companies, it could have lifted sanctions on oil years ago. The oil motive is not obvious, so we should stop pretending it is. Protests themselves often attract speakers whose intellect is on neutral and whose emotion is on overdrive. Jesse Jackson shouting Peace and Love and Justice is not persuasion, it is a series of mantras.

There are better arguments against the war. Inaction cannot bring peace and justice back to the people of Iraq. The only response is that this is not just about the people of Iraq, but the sovereign states and people of the world. It is about the threshold for war. The Archbishop of Canterbury, for example, warns of the dangers and instability of pre-emptive strikes as a precedent for world order. Striking a nation largely at the behest of great powers without the clear sanction of the United Nations could well liberate the people of Iraq, but also threatens to set a pattern less benign great powers of the future could emulate. You may not agree- its arguable. But it's an argument that does not presume an unproven motive, that does not pretend to moral purity, does not rely on cheap slogans, and does not insult the intelligence.
But if not for the pretensions of moral purity, cheap sloganeering and manifest insults, some of us hawks might actually have been persuaded by the protesters!!! Oh well...
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# Posted 9:51 PM by David Adesnik  

TURKS AND KURDS: The Cougars are getting worried about the presence of Turkish commandos in Northern Iraq. According to Reuters,
Turkey has spoken of not going beyond a "buffer zone" reaching some 20 km (12 miles) into northern Iraq but said it could go deeper if its national interests were threatened.
While that doesn't sound good, I sense that the Turkish refusal to host US ground forces will ensure that the US keeps Turkish interference to a minimum.

On a related note, the Cougars think that this CNN article constitutes evidence of an Arab backlash. But I'm not impressed. None of the protests mentioned by CNN had more than 10,000 marchers.

Perhaps more importantly, the Cougars ought to recall my statement that
even those [Arabs] who are not firmly anti-American will be deeply suspicious of American motives. Thus, there may well be riots or other disturbances. However, if it becomes clear that the West has replaced Saddam with a government more democratic than any other in the Middle East, the initial outburst of anti-Americansim will abate.
A real backlash will have to entail more than ineffective protests.

CORRECTION: According to the AP, the Cairo protest hit 10,000 and the one Yemen hit 30,000.
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# Posted 9:32 PM by David Adesnik  

HYPOCRISY EXPOSED: Best of the Web points out that Charlie Rangel (D-NY) -- aka Mr. Reinstate-The-Draft -- was one of 21 representatives to vote 'no' on a resolution expressing congressional support for the troops.

Perhaps unsurprisingly, a majority of African-American representatives refused to support the resolution. But two of those who did were Denise Majette (D-GA) and Arthur Davis (D-AL), both whom defeated far-left anti-Semites (Cynthia McKinney and Earl Hilliard, respectively) in last year's Democratic primaries.
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# Posted 9:28 PM by David Adesnik  

THE AMERICAN ZIONIST OIL MAFIA: What exactly does Iraq have against Sicilians?
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# Posted 1:11 PM by David Adesnik  

READER RESPONSE: Here's a classic from the NYT discussion board:
So you've started a war. Well done America. Hope you're ready for the consequences because your greatest threat now - is not muslim fundamentalists. It's the hatred of millions of white westerners.
I'm tempted to agree. But if this guy's right, should we start bombing France? Or would that lead to protests in the Muslim world?

Anyway, I'm a moderate, so what I recommend is for the US to hold off bombing Paris until the first French suicide bomber shows up in New York.
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# Posted 12:57 PM by David Adesnik  

DEJA VU: Sarah Sewall is back with more comments on civilian casualtites.
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# Posted 12:41 PM by David Adesnik  

ARAB PROTESTS ARE PEACEFUL: That's an NYT headline, not a generalization. Read the story. You might begin to wonder about the anti-American backlash that's supposed to be happening.

As far as I can tell, the best evidence for a backlash is coming straight out of San Francisco.
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# Posted 12:10 PM by David Adesnik  

BACKSEAT DRIVERS: Hamas has called upon the people of Iraq to attack American forces with suicide bombs. What, isn't Saddam's strategy suicidal enough for them already?
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# Posted 12:03 PM by David Adesnik  

THE POLLS: The WaPo reports that seventy percent of Americans back the war. According to Gallup, 60% support the war strongly, with an additional 16% supporting it somewhat.

There is some division, however, on whether the US will have won if it doesn't kill or capture Saddam. Also very interesting is that most Americans expect the war to last for months, not days or weeks. Strangely, 80% of respondents expect fewer than 1000 casualties despite the length of the war.

If you look at the raw data, there are a couple of other points worth noting. First of all, Bush's approval ratings -- both for general performance and for his handling of Iraq -- rose by 5-10% over the late February numbers. Not exactly a surprise.

The more interesting thing is that 67% of respondents thought that the President had done a good job of explaining his reasons for going to war. In light of the pundits' constant criticism of the president on that point, one has to wonder whether they were missing something.

My guess is that Saddam's transparent efforts to block inspections made it clear that he has a lot to hide and was not going to cooperate. Even if Bush was less than consistent in his public statements, he recognized that Saddam was playing games, which was what most Americans already knew.

Think of it this way: The pundits are like theater critics who will only applaud a brilliant performance. Everyone else is the audience. They know whether they like the film or not, but don't get worked up about the details.

PS I am a pundit. But I respect the audience.

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Thursday, March 20, 2003

# Posted 6:54 PM by David Adesnik  

DEMOCRATS AGAINST DEMOCRACY: Larry Kaplan levels his guns at the array of prominent Democrats who have come out against promoting democracy in Iraq or elsewhere in the Middle East. What is especially sad and hypocritical about such criticism is that it turns its back on Bill Clinton's legacy of promoting democracy abroad, especially during his second term in office.

What Kaplan does not confront, however, is the fact that the GOP's commitment to Wilsonian ideals remains unproven. Precisely because Kaplan is well aware of this fact, his exclusive criticism of prominent Democrats rings somewhat hollow.
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# Posted 6:30 PM by David Adesnik  

KOSOVO, IRAQ & INTERNATIONAL LAW: Kosovo demonstrated that morality often compels avoidance of UN protocol. But was the attack on Yugoslavia legal in addition to being moral? Yes -- but only after the fact.
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# Posted 1:12 PM by David Adesnik  

ARAB WORLD ERUPTS IN FURY: Or so reads the headline of an AP wire on the WaPo site. Read the article and you'll learn that a few thousand Egyptians are now the sum total of the Arab world.

Also note the opening sentence: "Hundreds of thousands of people marched on American embassies in world capitals Thursday to protest the war against Iraq, including a violent clash in Cairo..." Turns out that the hundres of thousands were mainly in Athens, Rome and Milan, cities not known for being part of the Arab world.
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# Posted 12:55 PM by David Adesnik  

JEWS NAMED BUBBA: Lots more interesting mail from OxBlog's readers. DM writes that:
Read your posting on anti-semitism in the South with great interest. I can't really speak for other parts of 'Dixie' but as a South Carolinian I can tell you that I have seen very little of that in my lifetime in the Palmetto state. For many years (from the 50's through the early 80's one of the most powerful politicians in South Carolina was Salomon Blatt...Speaker of the South Carolina House of Representatives). In the 90's we had a Jewish Chief Justice of the state Supreme Court -- Julius 'Bubba' Ness -- and as a boy I remember meeting, during a class trip, one of the powers of the state Senate, Senator Hyman Rubin.

The first Reform congregation in the United States was in Charleston, South Carolina and the Secretary of State for the Confederacy was Jewish. Also many of the business leaders of South Carolina have been Jewish. I can't answer for other parts of the south (such as the 'deep south'- they're a breed unto themselves down in those parts) but anti-semitism is not something that I ever witnessed. We have been guilty of other forms of bigortry in the south in our past, but in the social circles in which I grew up I never saw anti-semitism. Just glimpse of things from the Palmetto state. Again, I can't speak for the entire south.
It goes without my saying it that the prominence of Jews within the SC elite is absolutley remarkable. Still, I hesitate to consider such prominence as evidence for the sincere acceptance of Jews as equal citizens. Throughout the 19th century, Jews achieved remarkable prominence throughout Western Europe, only to have those same Western Europeans turn against them later on. Regardless, this sort of strange co-existence raises sophisticated questions about what tolerance is and how it is experessed.

Moving on: Complementing DM's Palmetto report, WG writes in on behalf of the Deep South. He writes that
I may be a bit late to this thread but here is a little evidence for your files. My wife's father is a devout Episcopalian in his mid 60s. He grew up in Greenville, Miss. His best friend in the world is a gentleman named Ed Kostman who is Jewish. They grew up together in Geenville. If there is a deeper part of the deep south I don't know where it is. Sonny moved to Chicago and eventually Danville, VA where my wife grew up. Ed stayed in Greenville. Presumably antisemitism was not rife enough to prevent him from eventually own 4 car dealerships. I've never had a discussion with either of these guys about antisemitisim but they treat each other and their families treat each other the same way we would treat Baptists, Presbyterians or any of the other weird sects we Episcopalians find in the South. In Danville, VA my wife grew up with a number of Jewish kids, so did my first wife in Petersburg, VA,. Neither places are pillars of enlightened thought. In fact, they are both as full of red necks as any small southern town but those people are in a very distinct minority in my opinion. In the big city of Richmond, I also grew up with numerous Jewish kids and never considered their religion as anything other than their religion. Of course we made fun of each other and called each other names and befriended each other the way kids do, or at least used to do before PC made everyone so damn hyper sensitive. It is also true that the civil rights struggle was going on while I was growing up and I never had anything like the kind of interaction with African Americans that I had with Jews.
Finally we come to the thoughts of AT, an Oxonian from Arkanas. She comments that
I've been following your posts about Southern anti-Semitism with interest. I found it very amusing that you would not be surprised at Moran's and Lott's offensive remarks based on the fact that they are
Southerners. We get that a lot. A Northerner assuming that bigoted views are rampant down South?? How shocking! Fortunately for everyone, it's not quite that bad. I don't agree that the percentage of bigots in the South is higher than anywhere else--it may be that our bigots are more vocal (and automatically more noticeable because of everyone's expectations), but for the vast majority of Southerners, the bad old days are over. And there is a striking difference between urban and rural views in both North and South, for the simple reason that city dwellers are more exposed to diversity. (Of course, people sometimes react to such exposure by becoming more racist.)

I would like to make one observation about residual prejudice in the South and the way it is expressed. The way I see it, a lot of older Southerners may seem inappropriate, but as far as I can tell, this makes no difference whatsoever in how they actually treat people. My late grandfather would make some pretty unreconstructed comments from time to time--nothing mean-spirited, but definitely embarrassing in front of your non-Southern friends. Still, I haven't met many people who were kinder and more even-handed, or less racist in actual fact. My grandfather's verbal gaffes, and the ways of thinking they represented, came from having lived almost his entire life in the rural Delta, where
racial roles were still narrowly defined (white farmers, poor white and black sharecroppers, Chinese storekeepers). Growing up in a relatively diverse Arkansas city (Fort Smith), I didn't have the same sort of baggage. By this, I certainly don't mean to defend Moran and Lott--they should have known better. It's very easy for people to take those
remarks as corroborating evidence that most Southerners are racist. But appearances can be deceiving.

My point is that there is a long tradition of decency and respect in the South. Sadly, it has often been drowned out by less noble elements in our culture, but a true Southerner will cultivate and uphold it. People who subscribe to this tradition treat everyone with the same dignity, and they also understand that actions speak louder than words. Racisms and prejudice are not only wrong, they are improper and unworthy. To us, the term "white trash" refers to ignorant, prejudiced people, not poor people. I only knew one Jewish family growing up, and only one black family (though I knew plenty of Asians, and Catholics), but honestly it never would have occurred to me to treat them differently. I just didn't think about it.
All I can say is that if the spokesmen of the South were as civilized as AT herself, then all of America would look forward to the South rising again. For the moment, it may be worth considering the relationship between thought and action. How is it that certain individuals openly accept stereotypes but still act in a fair and color-blind manner? What role do such stereotypes then play in the behavior of those who are racists?

In light of WG's concern about political correctness, one recognizes that such questions have to be answered before one can object to speech codes on ethical grounds rather than libertarian ones.

Before signing off, a couple of quick notes: DH writes back with a link to this article about that brief moment in Georgian history when Jews were the majority in said colony.

AS recalls hearing a British version of the Lt. Goldstein joke. Appropriately, the British version was more subtle. On a related point, I have to confess that I went astray in telling the Lt. Goldstein joke. The dowager in question actually requests that no Jews be sent to her home for dinner, not no blacks. This correction actually adds a level of sophistication that places the Southern version of the joke on par with the British one. TTFN!

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# Posted 12:14 PM by David Adesnik  

DEFINING TERRORISM: Here's one more reason to be proud of the US military. In a challenge to her students, Naval Academy ethics professor Shannon French asked each of them to clearly state the difference between themselves and the members of Al Qaeda. She then had her students exchange papers with a partner and write critical responses from the perspective of Al Qaeda.

The respones of both the students and their professor to this challenge are a powerful statement about what it means to be a professional soldier.
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# Posted 12:02 PM by David Adesnik  

THE EXPATRIATE RETURNS: I am back in Oxford and have replaced my curtains with British and American flags.

For the moment, the balance on our block is 2 for war, 2 against. Along with the Union Jack/Stars & Stripes display at 17 East Avenue, someone at No. 15 has had a poster up that says "Appeasment is not an option. It is a suicide note."

Across the street, there is a window with a "No War on Iraq" sign. A few houses down on our side of the street there is a poster that shows a B-52 in action along with the words: "Stop Humaniterrorism!" Looks like someone hasn't been reading OxBlog...

PS Later on tonight I'll tell you all a little more about my time in Israel.
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Wednesday, March 19, 2003

# Posted 3:35 PM by David Adesnik  

JERUSALEM DISPATCH, PART II: Still alive, still well. But British Airways cancelled all of its flights so I had to switch to El Al for the way back. Otherwise having a great time. Seeing friends from high school as well as my family. Should be back in Oxford tomorrow afternoon.

Everyone here is pretty calm, though I've hard that things in Tel Aviv are a bit more tense. I think things will turn out all right. I hope.
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Sunday, March 16, 2003

# Posted 2:57 PM by David Adesnik  

JERUSALEM DISPATCH: Still alive. Four limbs, etc. Minimal internet access. Reading mail but not writing. Human shield mission successful so far. Suicide bombers effectively deterred.
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# Posted 12:26 AM by David Adesnik  

OXBLOG=HUMAN SHIELD: I'm headed off to Israel in about half an hour. I will be there for four days. With any luck, I'll find some time to blog. Rather: With any luck, I'll come back in one piece. Peace.
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Saturday, March 15, 2003

# Posted 11:56 PM by David Adesnik  

GRAD STUDENTS TALK BACK: Eric Tam (definitely) and Brett Marston (sort of) think my description of Yale grad students' attitudes toward undergraduates is a little one-sided.

They're right, but it seems that the attitude I described is the one that makes it into print far more than the one they describe. Would that it were not so!
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# Posted 11:34 PM by David Adesnik  

SMALL POX: Martin Kimel reminds us that the US government isn't taking some very basic steps to protect its citizens from biological warfare. Martin says,
"It amazes me that so many American bloggers and professional pundits can argue that Saddam Hussein's possession of weapons of mass destruction poses such a grave danger that we must be prepared to launch a pre-emptive war against Iraq, yet they remain vitually mute in the face of our government's failure to protect us against Saddam's potential use of smallpox against our cities. I agree that we must be prepared to disarm Saddam by force, but I am also convinced that our lethargic reaction to the smallpox threat places us all in great peril.

What makes this so maddening is that there is a fairly simple preventive measure here: the smallpox vaccine. The risks are relatively de minimis, the failure to act potentially catastrophic. (Anyone who believes that an outbreak will be contained after the fact, with all the ensuing panic, is kidding himself. Can you imagine people in high-density areas calmly making appointments to get themselves and their families inoculated once the first case has been diagnosed in their vicinity?) If the "first responders" in my area don't want the vaccine that's been offered them, I do -- and there are plenty of other ordinary civilians who share that view.

So, what to do? We can write letters to the White House, to our Congressional representatives, to local government officials, to anyone of influence. We can make this an issue in the blogosphere that draws the attention of the mainstream media. There are, I'm sure, a host of other things we can do. The war is just around the corner. Let's start defending ourselves at home.
If it's any consolation to our stateside readers, the UK is just as vulnerable...
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# Posted 2:56 PM by David Adesnik  

JEWS OF DIXIE: OxBlog's intrepid reades are on a mission to figure out why it is that Hebraic Northerners assume that anti-Semitism thrives in the states of the Old Confederacy. Gary Farber, the incisive mind behind Amygdala writes that:
I don't have any kind of statistics handy, and I'm a bit loath to do other people's online research without a darned good reason (that's a hint to try googling up some yourself), but first an observation: there are and particularly were in the Sixties and earlier, far, far, far, more "blacks" in the South than Jews. So I'm hardly surprised to see anyone testify what I'm sure is completely true: that they heard far more anti-black remarks than anti-semitic remarks, and witnessed far more anti-black acts, etc. It only stands to reason.

As an anecdote, my mother, who was quite brave, took a hitchhiking trip with a friend, down through the South to visit her brother, who was then training at an Army base, in 1942. When she allowed in conversation with a truck driver that she was Jewish, he asked to see her horns. Deadly serious, no joke, that's what he (and many people) believed. Not in NYC, of course, but that's a difference between being around zillions of Jews and never having met one.

I don't recall of any Jewish civil rights workers being shot up North (Goodman, Schwerner, Cheney, you've heard of them?). And in the Sixties, the KKK was a tad more popular down South. And many other people, of course, had lesser versions of their opinions, which had a lot to say about Jews. As does, for instance, still, David Duke and others today. Where was it David Duke was in office, again?

On the other hand, Congressman Moran is not from a Southern state.

It's almost certainly as worthwhile to distinguish between urban areas and rural areas when discussing anti-semitism, as it is "north" and "south," historically. NYC is an exceptional case, for instance, as are some other large cities, but it's not as if you couldn't find anti-semitism in rural northern states, to be sure.
I think Gary says it pretty well. And whereas his mother was asked about her horns in the 1940s, I have friends who were asked about their horns in the 1990s. (It probably didn't help that my friend's last name was Horn, but anyway.)

Reader BR, a Southern native, thinks that the premise of Southern anti-Semitism should take into account the difference between Catholics and Protestants. As he observes:
I grew up in Alabama -- Mobile to be specific. I attended Catholic grade and high school from 1948 to 1960. Not once did I hear a disparaging remark from the nuns or the brothers aginst the Jews. Oddly enought Mobile has a substantial Catholic, and I suspect, a respectablely sized Jewish populations.

Growng up, I never heard my father or anyone else saying anything bad about Jews, but the Blacks were another story. Also I do not recall any synagogues being defaced. I think the KKK was never very big in Mobile because of the relatively large Catholic population and obviously the KKK never welcomed Catholics, Jews, and Blacks with open arms (or sheets.)

PS Mobile is a seaport and it is my opinion that seaports are generally more tolerant about cultural differences.
Another reader -- one who happens to share the initials DH -- adds that all those who think of the South as more anti-Semitic should take into account the often more offensive racism and anti-Semitism of the North. As he recalls,
I lived in Atlanta, and traveled the across the deep south, but no further north than Richmond until I went to Hofstra U. ( Long Island ). I am 39, from a white, Southern Baptist upbringing. My experience is similar to the DH you quote, but coming along at the tail end of the desegregation struggle, I heard very few openly expressed anti-black comments either. Prejudice was not extinguished by any means, but race problems had become a source of regional shame. I remember being stunned to hear my roommate from New England unselfconsciously ask me, "How can you stand all the niggers down there?" The "N-word" was considered a hyper-obscenity in my southern circle of friends.

In college, my incompetence at identifying Jews by racial characteristics or surname was a source of amusement, as was my confusion of their term "JAP" with John Wayne's epithet for his enemy in old war movies. I had always thought of Judaism as a religious belief that one could not know of a stranger. The Jewish friends of my childhood were simply kids whose religion had an inconveniently unsynchronized, but recognizably similar Sabbath ritual.

White Northerners I met in college all seemed to assume that whatever racial prejudices they harbored were at least better than what went on down south, and thus excusable.
A point worth making. Last but not least, blogger Dan Gelfand adds that
among my father's generation (he's 52), the perception of southern anti-Semitism seems to have at least partly resulted from the murders of Cheney, Schwerner and Goodman. It's something that seems to have stuck in the heads of many people. That said, I don't really know how much of that perception is actually true.
In closing, I offer a thought and a joke. The thought: Northern Jews' strong identification with the civil rights movement has led them to assume that the racists of the South must have also been anti-Semites. Regardless of our white skin, we know that Teutons and Anglo-Saxons often consider us to be less than white.

And the (moderately offensive) joke:
In 1944, a lonely southern dowager sent a telegram to the local army base to let it be known that she would be glad to host two or three young G.I.'s for Saturday dinner. She requested, however, that only white soldiers be sent.

On the appointed day and time, the dowager's doorbell rang and she walked out onto her porch. Standing there were three of the blackest soldiers she had ever seen. Taken aback, she stammeringly asked them, "Are you sure your commanding officer sent you to the right address?"

Calmly, one of the soldiers responded, "I'm sure that this is the right address, ma'am. Lieutenant Goldstein never makes mistakes."
Cheers!
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Friday, March 14, 2003

# Posted 8:35 PM by David Adesnik  

IRAN'S NUCLEAR STRATEGY. Get the bomb, stop America.
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# Posted 8:26 PM by David Adesnik  

DAMN GOOD POST: Amygdala lays down the law of how to separate veiled anti-Semitism from legitimate criticism of neo-conservatives. Don't come back here until you're done reading it.


Judith Weiss' response is also well worth your time. Finally, don't forget Jonah Goldberg's devastating attack on those who attack neo-conservatives because they are afraid to admit they are anti-Semites.
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# Posted 8:01 PM by David Adesnik  

MORE BLOGGYFOTTOM: Ben Berman has a long and thoughtful post on the dilemma of the liberal hawks. One of Ben's best points is that
it is naïve to think that war in Iraq will not increase the likelihood of terrorist attacks during the conflict. However, increased terrorism would be a strategic decision on the part of Al Qaeda, and not a direct result of the US invasion. Those who want to do harm to the US and the West need no further incentive, but an invasion of Iraq will be an opportune time to strike.
If there's a backlash, it will be planned. Anyway, go and read the rest of Ben's post.
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# Posted 7:43 PM by David Adesnik  

THE SOUTH RESPONDS: Unhappy with my observation that anti-Semitism is more common south of the Mason-Dixon line, reader DH responds:
I do not doubt that you and some of your friends may perceive that anti-Semitism is much more common in the South than in the North. However, in making statements based on such "perceptions" about groups of people, I think it's important to be careful that the perceptions stem from actual facts instead of stereotypes that themselves create the perception. To be more blunt, I think it's likely that the reason you and others perceive that Southerners are more likely to be anti-Semitic than Northerners is a general stereotype of white Southerners as bigoted. In this particular instance, I doubt that the stereotype has any basis in fact.

I grew up in Mississippi during the segregation era (I'm 49 and white) and although anti- black statements were as common as air, I can't remember ever hearing an anti-Semitic statement. It was not until I went north to law school (in Chicago) that I ever heard seriously anti-Semitic statements, all from Northerners. In the apartheid-era South that I grew up in, there were only two racial groups - whites and blacks. At that time, the key fact was that Jews were white. (Interestingly, the same was true for Chinese, who were declared "white" by law for purposes of segregation.) Even today, when I visit less enlightened relatives, I may hear anti-black comments, but I just don't remember any anti-Jewish remarks.

I have no doubt that polls would show that white southerners are more likely to be biased against blacks than whites in the rest of the country. But I am not aware of such polls showing this is true with respect to anti-Semitism. Are you? Without such evidence, I think it's best not to make generalizations about groups of people.
DH is right. I don't have evidence, just experience. If any of you have thoughts on this one, let me know.
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# Posted 7:36 PM by David Adesnik  

GREED: Seems a French corporation has been smuggling military supplies to Iraq as recently as this January. While there's no reason to think that the government has anything to do with it, I figure an American company would probably have the decency to sell illegal arms to China instead.

Thanks to RB for the link.
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# Posted 7:30 PM by David Adesnik  

SMARTER THAN SMART: The inimitable Howard Veit thinks that Elizabeth Smart was never kidnapped in the first place. Howard was a private investigator once, so maybe it's a good hunch. Sure would explain a lot.

Anyway, while you're over at Oraculations, don't forget to enjoy some of the other bizarre, twisted and hi-f*****- larious posts. I think Howard may be even more evil than the Angry Cyclist.
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# Posted 7:12 PM by David Adesnik  

CLINTON ON BUSH: In a speech at New York's 92nd St. Y, the fomer Arkansas governor said that he would've done a better job of handling the economy and lining up allies than his successor.

On the one hand, Clinton's attacks weren't much better than cheap shots. But the simple fact that he does support the war shows that he has a certain minimal degree of integrity. Cough--cough--Algore--cough--cough...

(Thanks to reader JW for the link.)
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# Posted 11:57 AM by David Adesnik  

PROCRASTINATION: This is the end of the line. I've now descended from racial politics, to crime news, to internet quizzes to the controversy surrounding statues that resemble reproductive organs.

I've stayed away from that last one despite Andrew Sullivan's pronounced interest. But since Glenn asked whether there is a double-standard regarding such stautes on university campuses, I thought I'd add my two cents.

At Yale, there is exactly such a statue, known as the Women's Table. It was designed by Maya Lin, better known for her work on the Vietnam War Memorial in Washington DC. The Table is the regular site of demonstrations and counter demonstrations about gender issues.

From this photo, it's hard to tell that there is anything even vaguely reproductive about the statue. But if you look at the Table from above, it looks exactly like an Oval Orifice. In fact, the Table has even been the victim of a "symbolic rape".

Anyway, it's time for me to go to the gym. Sensei Ohta is visiting, and I have the chance to move one step closer to being a black belt if I impress him enough. Cheers!
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# Posted 11:33 AM by David Adesnik  

MY ROLE MODEL is Franklin Roosevelt. At least according to this political stereotypes quiz. Could be worse. He did kick some Nazi a**.

I'm guessed that Josh would come up with Ronald Reagan, but I was wrong. He got Ralph Nader. Go figure.
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# Posted 11:10 AM by David Adesnik  

SENSATIONALISM: I know I should be more concerned about the Middle East, but this Utah kidnapping case is just too weird.
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# Posted 10:49 AM by David Adesnik  

MUSLIMS VS. ANTI-SEMITISM? We all know that James Moran (D-VA) is an anti-Semite. The real question, though, is "Will Arab-American groups say anything about Moran's remarks?"

Thanks to reader SR, we have our first answer. According to Khalid Turaani, executive director of American Muslims for Jerusalem (AMJ),
“Anti-Semitism is repulsive and intolerable. At the same time it is profoundly un-American to stifle discussion of the well-documented Israeli push for committing American troops to invade Iraq. Israel is a big factor in our decision to go to war...Israel Firsters want a war sooner than later, without regard for American interests or American lives."
Let me translate that for you in case you were having some trouble: "Anti-Semitism is bad, but American Jews are traitors who will sell out America on Israel's behalf."

The hypocrisy continues on AMJ's website. The highlight is AMJ's "Congress Watch", a comprhensive rating of all 535 congressmen's support for the Palestinians. At the end of the report is the AMJ "Hall of Fame" which includes (drum roll please): James Moran. Not to mention Dennis Kucinich and Cynthia McKinney.

There's a Hall of Shame as well, which includes hateful reactionary Arab bashers such as Hillary Clinton, Barbara Boxer, and Dianne Feinstein.

Also worth reading are some of the AMJ press releases, which do their best to pretend that Israeli soldiers show the same malicious disregard for human life as Palestinian suicide bombers. As is obligatory, the AMJ tries to compare Israeli crimes to the Holocaust.

After all, Auschwitz was nothing more than a justified response to fundamentalist Jews who strapped dynamite to themselves and wandered into Munich beerhalls. Right.

All this should really come as no surprise. As Daniel Pipes has shown, AMJ is nothing more than a moderate front for vicious anti-Semitic agenda. Sadly, the war on terror will have to confront enemies within the United States as well as abroad.
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# Posted 9:48 AM by David Adesnik  

THE DEMOCRATIC LEFT: Social Democrats, USA "is the successor to the Socialist Party, USA, the party of Eugene Debs, Norman Thomas and Bayard Rustin and is a member of the Socialist International."

You'll have to admit, these aren't the sort of folks you think of as hawks. But they are. They support the war against Saddam. And -- more importantly -- they are stronlgy in favor of a serious commitment to building democracy in postwar Iraq. Click here for a copy of an open letter to the President on behalf of democracy in Iraq, signed by an SDUSA official as well as neo-cons like Robert Kagan. Strange bedfellows, I say...but all for a good cause!

UPDATE: Special thanks to readers MC and TM who point out that SDUSA is one of the splinters that resulted from the break up of the original American socialist party. Closer to the neo-cons than one might expect, SDUSA has often taken a hawkish line on foreign policy.
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# Posted 9:32 AM by David Adesnik  

MAD COWS AND ENGLISHMEN: The anti-war crowd here seems to be enjoying its civil disobedience. As Giants & Dwarfs reports,
I have just witnessed a mild form of the LA riots or the French Revolution. Around two o'clock this afternoon, a huge mass of school kids (I estimate about 500), most of whom seemed to be about 14, 15 years old, turned up in the main shopping street of Oxford (Corn Market Street) carrying anti-war posters and chanting "No to War!" Some were wearing T-shirts that said: "Let's bomb Texas. They have oil too." They hung around the city center for a good hour and a half. Eventually they stormed Oxford Castle. Then the mob turned violent. They began to hurl rocks at busses and innocent by-standers (such as your humble correspondent). Later they occupied Carfax, the very heart of the city, and blocked buses. Security guards and the odd police officer tried to protect a nearby mall, when the kids threatened to go there next. I spoke to a couple of them, and they told me that they had broken out of their classes, with the tacit support of their anti-war teachers. "The teachers can't let us go, because it's illegal and they'd get sacked, but they wanted us to go", a girl told me. Almost all were pupils from Cheney School (If only the Vice President knew what they are doing in his name), where I imagine some unpleasant conversations will have to take place with staff tomorrow morning.
Not to be outdone, Oxford's students (participating in a larger demonstration) broke into an actual air force base. The BBC reported this as a criminal activity. In contrast, I received the following message from Rhodes Scholars Against the War maillist:
Thank you to everyone who came to our events this week, especially those who came to lie in the cold street on Saturday for the die-in, and those who made the journey to RAF Fairford on Sunday.

Our action at Fairford was a great success, with Oxford students breaking into the base successfully and blocking the take-off of a C-17 transport plane, as well as supporters having a picnic near Gate 14 and the B52 bombers...keeping a vigilant eye on them while they ate. We received coverage on the BBC (both on the TV and on
their website), Radio 4, and in the London Metro....please don't forget about the presence of these bombers in our backyard.
While, in a literal sense, this is sabotage, I'm not going to get worked up about it. These protesters will convince themselves of their own righteousness, ignore the Iraqi liberation once it happens, and then go back to protesting globalization like they did before September 11. Ho-hum.
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Thursday, March 13, 2003

# Posted 10:05 PM by David Adesnik  

UNBELIEVABLE: Thanks to RS for sending this my way. It is an
"Interesting video of the AC-130 Specter gunship in action. Note the ability of the crew to discriminate between combatants and non-combatants (not firing on the mosque, which was right next to the target). It is also important to remember there are Special Forces teams on the ground that spotted the target and determined that the Afghanis in the area are combatants."
[Note: The link above will directly open a wmv file.]

UPDATE: Here is some more information about the AC-130.
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# Posted 9:48 PM by David Adesnik  

ANOTHER NEW BLOG: I wonder if any country will ever pass the one-blog-per-person barrier. All I can say is that I'm doing my bit. In addition to OxBlog, I belong to Nathan Hale, a DC-area blog started by some friends of mine. It has lots of long, thoughtful essays about US foreign policy.

Also visit the Ranting Rantionalist, a new blog which describes its aspriations as follows:
Hopefully, my rantings will at least vaguely interest those of you who crave rational discourse. I am similarly hopeful that you liberal, subjectivist, collectivist simpletons are roundly agitated and annoyed. The ideas expressed on this Blog will not be subject to any form of political correctness. Facts and thoughts, no matter how unpalatable or taboo, will be presented in an unflinchingly honest fashion. It is my belief that political correctness is a shocking and fetid fact of modern intellectual life; nothing to expand it's already ubiquitous presence will be fostered here.
Read some RR posts and you'll see that Nick means business.
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# Posted 9:27 PM by David Adesnik  

WATCH OUT, ANDREW: OxBlog's good friend The Agonist has had some bad luck lately. A fellow IR student, Sean-Paul found out that his university had cancelled his research grant, which would have enabled him to write his book on the Silk Road. Thanks to cuts in federal and state funding, Sean-Paul doesn't have any personal savings to put toward his research. So...

In a bold move reminiscient of Andrew Sullivan, Sean-Paul has decided to turn to the blogosphere for support. He doesn't need $100,000, only $2500. And instead of earmarking it for personal consumption, Sean-Paul will be spending the cash on a worthy intellectual endeavour.

If 100 people pledge $25 each, Sean-Paul can write his book. Or make that 99. This OxBlogger has put his money where his mouth is.
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# Posted 9:15 PM by David Adesnik  

WARMONGERING ILLUSTRATED is the name of a new blog run by two law students at the University of North Carolina. Some recent highlights include their comments on the unknown merits of the UN Security Countil and their very own fisking of Jimmy Carter's NYT op-ed.

And don't forget to check out WMI's gonzo journalism exploits, which include crashing anti-war rallies and a contest for silliest anti-war poster.
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# Posted 8:51 PM by David Adesnik  

ANTI-WAR, ANTI-LOGIC: In a razor-sharp yet idiosyncratic essay, historian Perry Anderson exposes the untenable logic on which the anti-war movement rests. (Special thanks to reader AG for bringing the essay to my attention.)

Anderson's sharpest point is his refutation of the argument that a unilateral invasion of Iraq will undermine either the institution of international law or the trans-atlantic alliance on which it depends. As he observes:
Historically, the United States has always reserved the right to act alone where necessary, while seeking allies wherever possible. In recent years it acted alone in Grenada, in Panama, in Nicaragua, and which of its allies now complains about current arrangements in any of these countries? As for the UN, NATO did not consult it when it launched its attack on Yugoslavia in 1999, in which every European ally that now talks of the need for authorisation from the Security Council fully participated, and which 90 per cent of the opinion that now complains about our plans for Iraq warmly supported.
I might add that the unprecedented influence that the United Nations has at the moment is in part a response to American (and European) disrespect for its mandate. As I've said before, an invasion of Iraq is thus as likely to strengthen the UN as it is to destroy it.

The idiosyncratic side of Anderson's argument emerges in the form of warm praise for arch-realists Kenneth Waltz, Stephen Walt and John Mearsheimer. Incomprehensibly, Anderson endorses Waltz's bizarre hypothesis that the spread of nuclear weapons will make the world safer. Perhaps Prof. Anderson has not heard of a man by the name of Kim Jong Il?

All in all, Anderson's essay is well worth reading. Yet, as always, caveat emptor.

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# Posted 6:55 PM by David Adesnik  

THE DEFINITIVE GUIDE TO CHARLATANRY: A while back, OxBlog linked to the Angry Cyclist's exposee of casualty counter Marc Herold's dishonest methods. Now, AC reports that Herold has a book-length version of his pseudo-scholarship coming out.

But the really great thing is that Jeneane Garafolo has become a casualty counter as well, and has begun to double Herold's figures! (Read the whole interview. It's absolutely hilarious.)

PS The Angry Cylcist took the Evil Test and it turns out he is very, very evil. I am not surprised!
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# Posted 6:40 PM by David Adesnik  

DOLLARS AND SENSE (AND POUNDS): Reader KB reports that the BBC's commentary on the potential costs of a war with Iraq consists of many worst case scenarios and very little common sense.

As KB asked in a letter to the BBC, "What about the cost of NOT going to war?" Hard to put a number on that, but considering that Saddam Hussein will have an untouchable stockpile of chemical weapons if we don't disarm him now, I imagine military spending will rise to take that fact into account.

Anyhow, the really disappointing thing about the BBC's doomsday scenario is that it's so moderate. The BBC seems profoundly concerned that the UK may have to spend 10 billion pounds. Surely the BBC could've called Bill Nordhaus and gotten him to say that the cost of war will be 50 times that!

Frankly, the BBC's concern about this sort of pocket change reminds me of all the Oxford students who become indignant at the thought that they may someday have to pay a few thousand pounds a year for the privilege of attending their nation's best university. Show them a tuition bill from Harvard and they might realize that the British government is covering the costs of an education that will make them rich while the rest of Britain struggles to get by.
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# Posted 6:23 PM by David Adesnik  

STURM UND DRANG: Avid OxBlog reader Steve Sturm now has his own blog. We are proud to be one of three blogs on his roll, along with Instapundit and the Daily Dish.

In an interesting turnabout for a hawk, Steve lays responsibility for the UN's dithering on the shoulders of Bush and Blair. After all, if they are serious about Iraq, why are they letting incoherent French and German objections get in their way?

I definitely have some sympathy for this view, but I think sometimes Steve takes it a bit far, for example holding Blair responsible for depending on the British left in Parliament. Remember: Blair is the one responsible for transforming the Labour Party from a retrograde and unelectable socialist dinosaur into the monopoly party of the British center. It is because of this triumph that the United Kingdom has been able to stand by the side of the United States in opposing Iraq.

In another interesting post, Steve takes on all those bleeding-heart humanitarians who say you can't put a price on human life. Steve does, and he breaks down the price structure according to nationality and political beliefs.

Generously, Steve declares that a Frenchman is worth .8 of a Brit. What I don't get is why a Frenchman is worth five times as much as an Iraqi civilian. I mean, hey, the Iraqi people are actually Bush's strongest supporters outside of the Dallas city limits!

Keep it up, Steve!

UPDATE: Steve responds to my comments on Blair.
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# Posted 3:57 PM by David Adesnik  

WHO'S A HOOSIER? As our Hoosier readers have pointed out, I incorrectly referred to Dick Lugar as (R-IA) instead of (R-IN). My apologies for the mistake. I can assure you of this much, however: I know Lugar is from Indiana. I just mixed up the Iowa and Indiana abbreviations. Now imagine if I'd written (D-IN)...
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Wednesday, March 12, 2003

# Posted 10:00 PM by David Adesnik  

THIS IS A JOB FOR OXDEM!!! Wouldn't it be nice if the entire Bush administration had a firm commitment to democratizing Iraq? Then Josh and I could actually spend time working on our dissertations. But before I get to the bad news, here's some good:

Daniel Drezner's brilliant column in TNR exposes the false premises of the nonstop talk about how hard it will be to bring democracy to Iraq. As he observes,
...it is intellectually fashionable these days to believe that local conditions always triumph over grand theory. But the local conditions argument overlooks a crucial detail: Over the past century, international factors have been more important than domestic factors in determining the success of democratic transition and consolidation. And the international factors surrounding Iraq are more favorable than one might think.
Read the rest of the column to find out what those factors are. (Tony Smith, if you're reading this, I know you deserve credit for the "international factors" argument as well.

The bad news is that international factor #1 (the US government) can't get it's act together. Also in TNR, Lawrence Kaplan provides a devastating account of the State Department's efforts to trade democracy for stability in postwar Iraq. [Full text for subscribers only.]

Foggy Bottom's strategy for ensuring stability is to leave most of the centralized Ba'ath power structure in place after the war, rather than signing off on a federal constitution that would give considerable authority to Iraq's provincial governments. As Jacob Levy explains in (guess where!) TNR, a federal state structure is the best means of balancing ethnic voting blocs as well as stopping authoritariansim from emerging at the center.

The main flaw in Kaplan's account is its whitewash of the Iraqi opposition-in-exile supported by Rumsfeld and Wolfowitz. As both TNR and OxBlog have argued, however, there is good reason to believe that the opposition-in-exile is power hungry, incompetent, and unable to command the loyalty of anyone actually living in Iraq.

Thus, an extended US occupation may be quite a good thing if it gives time for indigenous democratic forces to organize themselves and draft a workable constitution. If the State Department directs the occupation, that may never happen. However, there are signs that the Pentagon will insist on taking control if an extended occupation is what the president decides on.

So things may work out all right in the end, thanks to a strange sort of dumb luck that combines the best of the Pentagon and State Department's flawed proposals for rebuilding Iraq.
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# Posted 9:03 PM by David Adesnik  

MR. 100%: Jackson Diehl always comes through with a column that unmasks the idiocy of conventional wisdom and shows what real common sense is.

This time, his subject is the shopworn discussion of whether Bush is personally responsible for the marked rise in global anti-Americanism. Josh Marshall, E.J. Dionne and Richard Cohen all say yes.

Howard Kurtz argues, that criticism from such quarters is quite credible, since Marshall, Dionne, and Cohen have consistently argued that Iraq is a threat that must be dealt with. I don't think such criticism is all that suprising, however. For centrist liberals such as M, D and C, there is a tendency to recognize the importance of dealing with threats forcefully, but also a tendency to believe that American arrogance is the cause of any resentment our policies generate abroad.

Ironically, this fear of arrogance is itself quite arrogant, since it assumes that other governments are so beholden to their emotions that their reactions to US decisions depends not on such decisions' actual content, but on whether or not their presentation is "arrogant". As I've said before,
" A unilateral invasion of Iraq is simply unacceptable in Europe. No amount of spin can change that. What the US has to decide is whether invading Iraq is important enough to disregard criticism of it."
Now that I've said my piece, we finally comeback to Jackson Diehl's column, which is the first one I've seen to make a similar point. As he writes:
Some would argue that what increasingly looks like a severe rift in the Western democracies was entirely man-made -- and that clumsy and arrogant acts by the Bush administration started the trouble...

These explanations seem too simple -- deeper historical forces, and not just personalities, are prying old allies apart. For the past decade, France and Russia have tried to make the Middle East a theater for containing the growing global power of the United States. Both strongly opposed the Clinton administration's attempts to respond forcefully to Saddam Hussein; both undermined U.S. containment of Iran. In doing so, they satisfied themselves that the world remained "multipolar," to use Chirac's term -- at the price of letting a couple of rogue states off the hook.
Diehl goes on to argue, however, that this sort of conflict cannot account for the hesitation of Mexico, Chile and Turkey to support the US. In these three cases, bad diplomacy has made all the difference.

While I think that the administration did a reasonable job with Turkey, I am still extremely impressed by Diehl's subtle analysis. The question is, when will the NYT hire him to replace Maureen Dowd?

PS Mickey Kaus makes a similar point to Diehl's in his March 10 post. [Is it me, or does Kaus not have permalinks?]
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# Posted 8:08 PM by David Adesnik  

SAUDI REFORMERS: The Sunday WaPo had an article on conservative Muslims supporting democratic reforms in Saudi Arabia. Predictably, the US Embassy is doing nothing to build a relationship with them.

No less predictably, the article raises unsubstantiated fears about an Islamist victory were the Saudis to hold open elections. As always, the Post's correspondent makes no effort to distinguish peaceful Islamists from their violent counterparts. Yet as OxBlog observed some time ago, this is a critical distinction both in Saudi Arabia and throughout the Muslim world.

While peaceful Islamists are often anti-American, they often condemn terrorists as un-Islamic. As the conduct of the current Saudi government shows, a peaceful anti-American democracy may be preferable to a nominally pro-Western dictatorship.
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# Posted 7:53 PM by David Adesnik  

BREAKIN' THE LAW: Both the NYT and WaPo have had articles in the past couple of days on the challenges of law enforcement in Afghanistan. The coverage is welcome, even if the content isn't all that original.

More interestingly, President Bush called Hamid Karzai to apologize for his grilling by the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. In the hearing,
"Sen. Chuck Hagel (R-Neb.) warned that if Karzai told the committee everything was going well, "the next time you come back, then your credibility will be in question. Hagel said later that he felt the administration had "coached" Karzai.
While it's hard to know exactly what Hagel meant, I sense that he wants to make sure the administration doesn't forget about Afghanistan. In the mold of Richard Lugar (R-IN), Hagel seems to be one of few Senators who understands the importance of addressing fthose foreign policy issues that may have a critical impact on American security but not attract much attention from the media.
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# Posted 7:32 PM by David Adesnik  

ANTI-SEMITISM: Instapundit has the round-up of reactions to Rep. James Moran's (D-VA) anti-Semitic remarks.

I have to admit, I'm having a hard time getting worked up about this, since it is so cliche. Southerner says Elders of Zion control America. I'm the sure the Anti-Defamation League will deal with it. Then again, I thought nothing of it when Trent Lott made his infamous remarks. A racist from Mississippi. Shocking.

But here's an interesting question: Will Arab-American groups say anything about Moran's remarks? That would be impressive.

CLARIFICATION: A reader has sarcastically observed that my comment above about Southerners is just as enlightened as Moran's comment about Jews. I beg to differ. It simply my own experience and that of many Jewish friends -- yes, some of my best friends are Jewish! -- that anti-Semitism is much more common in Southern states than in the North. While most Southerners -- and almost all the Southerners I personally know -- are very open-minded, there are a disproportionate number that aren't. Thus, my comment entailed an observation. Moran told an out and out lie.
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# Posted 6:49 PM by David Adesnik  

MONEY TALKS: Has the Pentagon begun to accept that it alone can build a democratic Iraq? In a suprising announcement, it unveiled American plans
"to pay the salaries of 2 million or more Iraqi bureaucrats and soldiers to help stabilize Iraq after the fall of President Saddam Hussein, Pentagon officials said yesterday in revealing new details of a broad strategy to occupy and rebuild the country.

Soldiers in Iraq's regular army would be paid for construction work and such tasks as clearing rubble and land mines, officials said. Teachers, police officers, hospital staff and other government workers would collect salaries for delivering a measure of normalcy in the early months after a possible U.S.-led invasion."
I'd have to imagine that the Pentagon is taking on this incredible responsibility because it understands that a half-hearted approach to occupation cannot work. As a peacetime Powell Doctrine might have said, one goes in with overwhelming funds, or one doesn't go in at all.
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# Posted 6:00 PM by David Adesnik  

PREACH IT, SENATOR: McCain is an OxDem man:
Isn't it more likely that antipathy toward the United States in the Islamic world might diminish amid the demonstrations of jubilant Iraqis celebrating the end of a regime that has few equals in its ruthlessness? Wouldn't people subjected to brutal governments be encouraged to see the human rights of Muslims valiantly secured by Americans — rights that are assigned rather cheap value by the critics' definition of justice?
Let's hope that he shares out commitment to the hard work that comes after liberation.
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# Posted 5:53 PM by David Adesnik  

CANNON FODDER: No, this isn't another post about civilian casualties. It's a post about karate.

I'm beginning to sense that brown belts are the karate equivalent of World War I infantrymen. They go out there knowing they are going to be slaughtered. My first fight at last Sunday's tournament actually wasn't all that bad. My opponent was very conservative, and we spent most of the time trying to establish a better position to attack from, rather than simply attacking.

He got ahead 1-0, however, and then I had to chase him during the last 30 seconds of the match in order to try for an equalizer. I tried, but his fist "equalized" my nose. I actually bled, though not much. The only consolation was that my opponent went on to win his next three matches and qualify for the final round. At least I lost to someone good.

What hurts more than losing is losing without a fight, which is what happened in my second match. Around 30 seconds in, my opponent swept my front leg. I barely resisted. It was 5:30pm, I'd gotten three hours of sleep the night before, and I had been at the tournament since 8:30 that morning.

I just sort of floated with my opponent's leg sweep, feeling that it was almost natural to follow the force he generated rather than resisting it. Of course, turning my back ended the match. I didn't feel a thing. My opponent barely touched me. All he needed to do was show that he could've hit me had he wanted to.

When I got back on Sunday night, I started working on my presentation for today's OxDem panel discussion. And that is pretty much all I have done since then.

I haven't written one word of my thesis since last Friday. I've put up one real post on OxBlog. But now that's all behind me and I'm back in business.

The panel came off quite well in terms of audience reaction. Regardless of their political views, members of the audience seemed to believe that it was an enriching discussion. They also were very positive about our decision to have a student-centered discussion rather than a lecturing profession.

Later on, Josh or I may post some sort of summary or partial transcript. Don't expect any sound files, though. Our recording device was none other than the hand-held tape recorder I used to conduct interviews for my senior thesis in college.

In political terms, it's hard to know if the panel was a success or not. Naturally, we didn't expect anyone to change their views in the space of an hour and a half. I think our main concerns was to demonstrate that one can be very well-informed and still support both the use of force against Iraq and democratization afterward.

From my perspective, it was most important to demonstrate this fact to the significant number of Americans in Oxford who are very hesistant to make their views about the war known, since they do not want to bear the responsibility of justifiying their position if it comes anywhere close to supporting for the war.

On some level, I am uncomfortable with such individuals' unwillingness to take a stand and make an effort to become informed. On the other hand, one has to have a tremendous amount of information at one's fingertips in order to respond to accusations that a war will result in hundreds of thousands of civlian deaths, that it will undermine the United Nations and that it will provoke a terrorist backlash throughout the Middle East.

On behalf of all those who sense that these are simplistic and false arguments, Josh and I tried to show that there is a solid case to be made for confronting Saddam and embarking on a project of democratization in the Middle East. Beyond that, we're just keeping our fingers crossed.
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Tuesday, March 11, 2003

# Posted 9:53 PM by David Adesnik  

WISHFUL THINKING? Jacob Golbitz of Innocents Abroad is beginning to think about what sort of international order will emerge in the aftermath of the Second Gulf War. His thoughts are well worth reading. As Jacob himself suggests (via e-mail, no permalink), one might think of his work as a neo-conservative/realist approach to international politics.

In short, Jacob argues that the now-apparent lack of common interests within the ranks of democratic nations will bring to an end the brief era of international cooperation that lasted throughout the 1990s.

The central point on which I differ with Jacob is his exclusive focus on common interests and disregard for common ideas. As is always the case with realists, their realism shades into ivory tower abstraction when they insist on thinking of states as having only interests but not ideas.

To be fair, Jacob never explicitly states that ideas do not matter. But his analysis is clearly interest-driven.

From my perspective, the current conflict between the United States and Europe should not be read as the downfall of an outdated international order. Rather, it is a further demonstration that shared democratic ideals are not enough to ensure constant coordination between American and European foreign policy.

Remember that not one of the United States' dissenting allies has indicated that it would do anything to stop a US invasion or defend Iraq should war breakout. Realists take note: the balance of power is still dead.

In time, the current Euro-American rift will become yet another memorial to the unprecedented flexibility of alliances between democratic nations. It was that flexibility that ensured our victory in the Cold War, and which will ensure our victory in the war on terror.
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# Posted 12:57 PM by Daniel  

I SWEAR, I FREEDOM KISSED HER. You thought America's relations with France had already hit rock bottom? Order some fries on the hill.
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# Posted 8:25 AM by David Adesnik  

BACKLASH UPDATE: Will an invasion in Iraq provike a Muslim backlash? Martin Kimel says yes. I say no.

Today's evidence is on Martin's side, though, with the Washington Post reporting that scholars at Al-Azhar University (the Harvard of the Islamic world) calling for jihad in the event of an invasion.

The Al-Azhar declaration states that, "According to Islamic law, if the enemy steps on Muslims' land, jihad becomes a duty on every male and female Muslim." Funny how twelve years of US stepping on Saudi land hasn't provoked that kind of statement before. In light of most Arabs' negative views of Saddam, I sense that having US troops cross the border from one Muslim land to another won't make a lasting difference. But we'll see.
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Saturday, March 08, 2003

# Posted 8:55 PM by David Adesnik  

ARROGANT GRADUATE STUDENT: No, this is not an autobiography. ;) It's about the strike at Yale and Corey Robin, the former graduate student (now a professor in Brooklyn) whose rantings made the op-ed page in yesterday's NYT. Here's what he had to say: In 1991
graduate students went on strike. I did, too — reluctantly. But on the picket line, something happened to me. As we marched around the freshman quad, an undergraduate yelled out his dorm window, "Get back to work." For the first time in my life, I felt like a maid. And suddenly I realized that this was how other workers at Yale — in the dining halls, the labs, the offices — routinely felt. I kept marching, determined never to forget what it's like to work at a place like Yale.

The university's administrators like to claim Yale has changed. And it has — thanks in part to the unions, which do as much as any professor to teach students about the dignity of work. But old habits die hard. On Wednesday, an undergraduate columnist in Yale's student newspaper ended her essay with a message to Anita Seth, the leader of the graduate students' union: "Oh, and Anita? Go teach a section."

How do students so young exercise such breezy command? Where do they learn such imperial disregard, talking to teachers — and dishwashers and janitors — as if they were personal servants? I don't know, but I don't blame the students. They've just learned a lesson from Yale.
Typical. For whatever reason, pro-union grad students at Yale delude themselves into believing that Yale's undergraduates are the heartless scions of an American plutocracy, rather than the middle-of-the-road middle-class liberals that they actually are. (FYI Nader came within 20 or so votes of beating Dole at the Yale polling station when I was a sophomore in 1996. Clinton was far ahead of both of them.)

But I won't say any more, since a letter to the Times has said it best:
Mr. Robin does Yale students a disservice when he transplants the opinion of one conservative columnist onto the entire student body. As a Yale sophomore, I have noticed an attitude on campus that is quite distant from the "imperial disregard" of which he accuses undergraduates.

The vast majority of students have treated strikers with respect, whether or not they agree with union demands. In fact, most of the students I have talked with support Locals 34 and 35, and have become increasingly dissatisfied with the way Yale's administration treats its workers.
While I wouldn't say that students supported the strikers demands' all that strongly when I was there, respect for the members of Locals 34 and 35 and the tremendous amount they did for us was semething almost everyone could agree on.
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# Posted 7:31 PM by David Adesnik  

THE POLITICS OF AL JAZEERA: Tom Brokaw (yes, that Tom Brokaw) has an op-ed in the NYT which argues that the rise of Al Jazeera is responsible for fierce anti-war sentiment in the Arab world.

If not for Al Jazeera, Brokaw says, the state-run Arab media might have been able to persuade the Arab street that US policy isn't so bad after all. I'm not so sure. Considering that the Arab media have long been filled with hateful anti-American, anti-Israeli and anti-Western diatribes, I have a hard time believing that Al Jazeera made any sort of difference.

That point aside, it is important to recognize Brokaw's argument as the current version of the liberal cliche that if the US was just better at explaining it policies, people wouldn't resent it so much. In his column, Brokaw sympathetically quotes a Pentagon planner who says that "We've done a terrible job out here explaining why we're going after Saddam Hussein." (For a similar view, visit Bloggy Fottom.)

But the real problems are the policies themselves. A unilateral invasion of Iraq is simply unacceptable in Europe. No amount of spin can change that. What the US has to decide is whether invading Iraq is important enough to disregard criticism of it. I, for one, say yes.

And I suspect that there will be much less criticism once we find Saddam's chemical weapons stockpile and show the French and Germans what they are pretending doesn't exist.
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# Posted 7:14 PM by David Adesnik  

SILLINESS: "Anti-French feeling has been carefully fomented by Republican officials, Rupert Murdoch's media empire and other administration allies." -- Paul Krugman
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# Posted 7:04 PM by David Adesnik  

TECHNO-OPTIMISM: Patrick Ruffini looks forward to the days when the US military will be able to knock off a dictator a month.
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# Posted 6:50 PM by David Adesnik  

QUIET DIPLOMACY: Sean-Paul has a pair of excellent posts on diplomatic efforts to reduce tension with North Korea.

The one point I'm going to take issue with is Sean-Paul's description of these efforts as "appeasement" and "Clintonian". What they may indicate is that the US has recognized the futility of stopping North Korea from going nuclear. If that's the case, Clintonian appeasement may have been preferable.

(I can't believe I just said that! Then again, even Charlie K. thinks that "the time for appeasement may indeed have arrived.")
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# Posted 6:25 PM by David Adesnik  

STARVING CHILDREN: Yes, we're back in bad news mode. In response to my post on the UN estimate that 1 million childen will die of malnutrition in the event of war, reader PM told me to take a look at this article in Slate by Fred Kaplan, which exposes the highly questionable premises on which the UN study was based.

Kaplan's criticisms stung enough for CASI, the NGO which published the UN estimate, to post a response on its website.

I didn't find the response all that convincing, since its essential premise is that the US will completely disregard the effects of its warfighting strategies on Iraqi civilians. While there is no question that the Pentagon is less than honest about such issues, it's record in Afghanistan and Kosovo shows that it takes them quite seriously.

Last but not least, make sure to take a look at Brookings scholar Michael O'Hanlon's article on US and Iraqi military casualties in a second Gulf war. In urban fighting, the US may have to accept thousands of casualties. That is a very sobering thought.

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# Posted 5:51 PM by David Adesnik  

BLOGGY FOTTOM is the name of new foreign policy blog launched by Benjamin Berman, previously known as the author of the second funniest OxBlog lightbulb joke.

Ben is a liberal hawk who has lots of very sensible things to say about foreign policy. Especially interesting is his Call to Unite in Disarming Iraq.

Read it and you'll see that Ben is much closer to the Kevin Drum model of liberal hawkishness than to my own. In other words, Ben's domestic politics are as aggressively liberal as his stance on foreign policy.

In contrast, I am a liberal hawk by virtue of my belief that America must promote liberalism -- in the form of democracy and human rights -- across the globe. We must do so because the liberal principles on which American was founded are universal.

However, I do not believe that these liberal values are identical to those that animate the Democratic agenda on social policy. Rather, both parties promote agendas that represent different variants of the same liberal values on which America was founded. As I see it, the choice between them is more often one of pragmatism than of principle.

So Ben, welcome to the blogosphere!
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# Posted 3:05 PM by Daniel  

THE JEWS. There has never been and never will be a consensus within the "community." There are many many voices in the community. Read Oxblog if you want examples of Jews disagreeing.

In his column today, Bill Keller quotes a Republican strategist who says: "If the policy (the Iraq war) succeeds in the war and the peace....you'll see a further tectonic shift of Jewish political support, both in terms of money and votes, toward Bush. That's not why it's being done, but it will be a consequence if they're successful." I agree that Jewish money will flow toward Bush--Jews who are interested in foreign policy tend to be more hawkish and active politically. But I disagree with the contention that Jews will vote in significantly higher numbers for Bush.

Broadly speaking, Israel is not the top issue on which American Jews vote. Like other Americans, Jews are deeply concerned with domestic issues like the economy, choice, education, the separation of church and state, health care, social security, and the environment. In polling from the 1990s, Israel did not make the top 10 of issues. With the second intifada and 9/11, one could argue that Israel and foreign policy in general has become a greater concern for American Jews. Still, I don't think matters pertaining to Israel will be the decisive factor for Jewish voters in 2004.







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# Posted 11:13 AM by David Adesnik  

PSEUDO-SCHOLARSHIP: A while back, I mentioned radical academic Marc Herold as author of a study claiming that US bombs killed 4,000 Afghans. My spider-sense said something was wrong with his work, but I didn't know what.

Now I do, thanks to the Angry Cyclist. Tech Central Station also has a column on Herold's absurd methodology. And the Weekly Standard points out that Europe's great newspapers have all taken Herold at his word, in addition to providing further evidence that Herold is charlatan.

For some extra amusement, check out the e-mails that went back and forth between Herold and the Angry Cyclist. Many thanks to Prof. Herold for reminding me why, exactly, I intend to leave the academy as soon as I get my doctorate.
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# Posted 10:43 AM by David Adesnik  

EXPAT: Another New Yorker marooned on this harsh desert isle? Yes! Hear all about it at Belgravia Dispatch.
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Friday, March 07, 2003

# Posted 11:55 PM by David Adesnik  

OIL SHOCK? According to CSIS expert Anthony Cordesman,
"there is a chance - 10 percent or less - that the war will take a significant turn for the worse. Damage to oil fields, high casualties, or effective use of WMD would send the price of oil surging to $80 per barrel, according to CSIS economists."
In contrast, Nordhaus never estimates the chance that the war will result in extensive damage to oil production facilities. While he acknowledges that things might turn out well, he describes such optimism as naive.

Reading his paper, you get the sense that the chances of a $500 billion spike in the price of oil are better than even. But he never says so explicitly. In short, I think Nordhaus is protecting himself. He wants to scare people about the cost of the war, but isn't confident enough in his own work to take a clear stand on the issue.

Also: after surfing the web for a while, it seems that no one has really tackled the issue of indirect costs other than Cordesman and the CSIS staff. But the CSIS folks have done a lot. The reports on their Iraq website are very in-depth. I won't say more than that until I get some sleep.

If you happen to know of any other experts who have responded to Nordhaus or come up with independent projections of the war's impact on global markets send an e-mail my way. Until then, g'night.
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# Posted 10:53 PM by David Adesnik  

DOLLARS AND SENSE: Some of my anti-war friends have been hyping Yale economist William Nordhaus' estimate that a war would cost $1.6 trillion, if one takes into account its costs on stock and oil markets.

If one ignores, for the moment, indirect costs such as the impact of war on global markets, it is clear that the actual cost of fighting Saddam, including a military occupation, will come in at under $200 billion. That number reflects indepedent estimates made by the Congressional Budget Office, the Democratic staff on the House Budget Committee and the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments, a non-partisan think tank.

$200 billion ain't peanuts, but if the President thinks we can afford a $670 billion tax cut, $200 billion for national security doesn't seem like such a bad idea. But what about Nordhaus? He thinks the CBO, Budget Committee and CSBA estimates are optimistic, but doesn't suggest that fighting Saddam would cost all that much more than they say.

When it comes to occupation, Nordhaus says it could cost anywhere from $75 to $500 billion. The low end figure is the cost of keeping 75,000 troops in Iraq for five years. The high end figure is for 200,000 troops over 10 years. (See page 21 of Nordhaus' report.) Considering that Nordhaus is an alarmist, those figures don't strike me as all that alarming.

Nordhaus' estimate of the war's impact on oil markets assumes the "destruction of most of Iraq?s oil-production capacity along with one-quarter of the productive capacity of other Gulf states," pushing oil prices up to $75 per barrel or $3 per gallon of gas. If that happens, it would cost the US up to $500 billion. (P.29)

Another potential cost of war is a recession similar to that of 1991, which Nordhaus estimates at a cost of $200 to $500 billion. (P.35) If all of these things go wrong at once, the total cost to the US would be about $1.6 trillion. If things go as planned, the total cost will be only $120 billion. (P.39)

Frankly, Nordhaus' numbers don't seem all that realistic. But I'm not an economist. So I'll report back when I've found someone who knows more than I do.
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# Posted 10:38 PM by David Adesnik  

SILVER LINING: Finally, some good news (but still no permalinks). On 31 Dec 2001, the WaPo reported that
“The delivery of unprecedented amounts of wheat to Afghanistan over the past month has averted a major famine this winter, international and American relief officials said last week.

Although they are wary of claiming total victory, officials said they believe the overall food supply in Afghanistan is now sufficient and conditions are stable enough to deliver food throughout most of the country.

"There will be no famine in Afghanistan this winter," said Catherine Bertini, executive director of the United Nations' World Food Programme, which trucks the food aid into Afghanistan. "There will be deaths, because the country was in a pre-famine condition this summer before the war started. But it will be isolated, and not large-scale."
Not exactly a suprise. Unless, of course, you believed the NGO prophets of doom who declared that millions would die of famine because of the war. In case you don't believe that anyone would have predicted that sort of disaster, I thought I'd provide some sample quotes. Here's a Guardianr eport from 22 Sept 2001:
“Fourteen British charities, including Oxfam, wrote an open letter to Tony Blair yesterday warning that up to 5m people face starvation.”
Next, check out India's Hindu from 14 Oct 2001:
“…the United Nations Human Rights Commissioner (UNHCR), Ms. Mary Robinson warned of a looming humanitarian crisis if the aid effort was not stepped up. "There is a desperate situation for hundreds of thousands - perhaps up to two million - of the Afghan civilian population who desperately need food," she said.”
Back on the homefront, the Minneapolis Star Tribune reported that
“The Senate passed Wellstone's amendment [calling] for the United States to put as much effort into providing humanitarian aid as it is on the military front in its dealings with Afghanistan. Without more U.S. aid, Wellstone said, 100,000 Afghan children could die this winter from hunger and disease.”
On 5 Nov 2001, U-Wire reported that
“Sarah Zaidi, a director of the Center for Economic and Social Rights, said last Monday that "millions -- literally millions -- of Afghan civilians will starve to death this winter unless the U.S. military suspends its attacks and allows the U.N. to re-establish effective food distribution."
Fortunately for the people of Afghanistan, the US ignored this sort of absurd advice. The American victory in November 2001 brought with it the food that Afghanistan had been so desperate for. But consider this fact, from the 6 0ct 2001 issue of Britain's New Scientist:
“Afghanistan has suffered a three-year drought that has been largely ignored by the Western media. Many thousands died of hunger in the mountains last winter, despite a UN programme of food aid. This year's harvest was again half that of a normal year, and much less in areas such as Badakhshan in the rebel-held north-east. The UN warned of an impending "famine without precedent" just a week before the events of 11 September.”
In other words, if not for the war, there would have been a "famine without precedent". Believe it or not, the war saved countless Afghan lives. Yes, one thousand innocent civlians lost their lives to American bombs. But even the most jaded anti-war activits would have to admit that those thousand died to save tens of thousands of their countrymen.
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# Posted 12:41 PM by David Adesnik  

MORE GLOOM AND DOOM: My research on civilian casualties continues. (I apologize for the lack of permalinks, but I'm using Nexis-Lexis.) The most interesting conclusion from today is that landmines from Afghan's previous wars kill far more people every year than American airstirkes did in 2001. According to Agence France Presse (21 Sept. 2001):
“Explosions of landmines and left-over ammunition caused on average about 88 casualties a month in Afghanistan in 2000, and that was a sharp decline from the 1999 level.

About half of 2,812 casualties treated in an 18 month period were children and most were civilians, according to the ICRC, but it says the figure does not take into account those who die on the spot…

The United Nations and relief agencies in Afghanistan have cleared about 215,000 anti-personel mines in a decade, out of several million thought to be scattered over the Afghan landscape.”
Perhaps this isn't surprising considering that even Bill Arkin from Human Rights Watch reports that
“…what I've observed on the ground is that there was a battle against al-Qaeda that is actually more impressive than I thought. Here in Kandahar is an example. It's amazing how you can see one house that has bombed specifically because there were in Arabs in the house and yet the next door houses have not even been damaged at all. And all over the city, where there's very few civilian casualties in fact, it's amazing how you can pick out specific al-Qaeda houses that were bombed. And the neighborhood all knows that Arabs were there.” (CNBC -- Hardball, 22 Mar 2002)
Even the United States' notorious cluster bombs seem not to have caused much collateral damage. According to the Boston Globe (22 Feb 2002):
“The Pentagon, severely criticized for its widespread use of cluster bombs in Iraq during the Gulf War, has dropped far fewer of the munitions in Afghanistan and has largely avoided civilian areas, focusing instead on enemy troops, tanks, and airfields, according to initial investigations by the United Nations.

UN mine-clearing specialists, working with a Pentagon list of 188 sites hit by cluster bombs, have examined 20 so far and found only one site near a civilian area. The Globe has obtained the previously undisclosed site list.”
When comes to putting facts like this in context, I think Peter Beinart got it right in TNR (19 Nov 2001). Beinart starts with the assumption that Afghan civilian casualties may have reached the 500 mark in mid-November.
Then consider the events of August 8, 1998. On that day, the Taliban took Mazar-e-Sharif from the Northern Alliance. They entered a multi-ethnic city with a substantial population of Hazaras, a Persian-speaking, Shia minority clustered near the Iranian border. The Taliban despised the Hazaras --first, because the Hazaras had fiercely opposed their rule, and second, because the Sunni Taliban considered the Shia Hazaras to be infidels.

And so the conquering Taliban governor addressed the Hazaras from the loudspeaker of a city mosque. According to Human Rights Watch, Mullah Manon Niazi declared that, "Hazaras are not Muslim, they are Shia. They are kofr (infidels)... If you do not show your loyalty, we will burn your houses and we will kill you. You either accept to be Muslims or leave Afghanistan." With that, Taliban soldiers went door to door. They looked for people with Asiatic features, supposedly a Hazara characteristic. Hazaras were told to convert on the spot--and say a Sunni prayer as proof. Those who did not were killed immediately or taken to the city jail from which many were transported to the countryside and then executed. To teach the few remaining Hazaras a lesson, Manon Niazi decreed that the dead bodies remain on the streets for close to a week. Asiaweek estimated the dead at over 6,000.”
While the US may have invaded Afghanistanin order to stop Al Qaeda, its war of self-defense also became a war for freedom and human rights.
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Thursday, March 06, 2003

# Posted 10:19 PM by David Adesnik  

FISKING TIME: This NYT editorial just p****d me off. So here goes:
With yesterday's barely veiled French and Russian threat to veto a war resolution, the United Nations Security Council appears to be rapidly approaching a crippling deadlock over Iraq. That would be the worst of all possible outcomes. It would lift the diplomatic pressure on Iraq to disarm and sever the few remaining restraints that have kept the Bush administration from going to war with its motley ad hoc coalition of allies.
"Motley" and "ad hoc"? That makes it sound like our allies are Tanzania and Vanuatu, not Britain, Spain, Italy and sixteen other countries in Europe (counting Poland). In fact, the sudden emergence of this coalition might have something to with the fact that almost all of its members belong to a relatively well-established alliance that goes by the name of 'NATO'.

As for "Ad hoc", that's a better description of the anti-war coalition, comprising the quixotic French, a German chancellor mired in an economic crisis and assorted African dictators along for the ride.
The rupture in the Security Council is not just another bump in the road in the showdown with Iraq. It could lead to a serious, possibly fatal, breakdown in the system of collective security that was fashioned in the waning days of World War II, a system that finally seemed to be reaching its potential in the years since the end of the cold war. Whatever comes of the conflict with Iraq, the world will have lost before any fighting begins if the Security Council is ruined as a mechanism for unified international action.
First of all, I'd like to inject a dose or reality into conservative dreams and liberal nightmares about an unauthorized war with Iraq crippling of the United Nations. The past six months have made clear just how much the UN matters to Europe. 1441 played a critical role in persuading almost all of Europe's governments to support the United States.

If the US goes to war over a French and/or Russian veto, that will show that the French and Russian vetos are worthless, not that the UN is irrelevant.

As for "the system of collective security" that the NYT is so fond of, might I ask to whom it has provided security? I believe that the UN plays a critical role in international politics, but providing security is not something that it has ever been able to do. Ask the Bosnians. Ask the Kosovars. Ask the Rwandans. What the UN does do is help rebuild nations after dictators have wrecked them and/or the United States has overthrown those dictators with force.
The first casualty is likely to be the effort to use coercive diplomacy to disarm Iraq. The unity of the Security Council last November in backing Resolution 1441 without a dissenting vote, combined with the movement of American forces to the Persian Gulf region, changed the equation with Iraq. Though Saddam Hussein is far from full disarmament, he has given ground in recent months by permitting the return of arms inspectors after a four-year absence and, more recently, by beginning to destroy illegal missiles. With more time and an escalation of pressure, Mr. Hussein might yet buckle.
The Times has it exactly right: Saddam won't disarm unless someone steps up the pressure. The French and Russians clearly don't understand that. They insist on taking at face value Saddam's charade of complaince.

Thus, it seems there are two ways to go from here -- but both begin with the President declaring that he will go to war with or without the United Nations. If the President's declaration produces a compromise with the French and Russians, that might step up the pressure on Saddam. If it doesn't produce a compromise, Saddam will face a very clear choice of disarming or having it done for him in much less pleasant way.
...the French and the Russians are not the only ones who brought us to this point. Mr. Bush and his team laid the groundwork for this mess with their arrogant handling of other nations and dismissive attitude toward international accords. Though they mended their ways to some extent after Sept. 11, and initially tried to work through the Security Council on Iraq, the White House's obvious intention to go to war undermined that effort.
Ah, now I see. If the US had just signed on the dotted line at Kyoto, then the French and Germans would get behind the war effort. You scratch my back, I'll scratch yours.

As for the "arrogant handling of other nations", why have only the French and Germans taken such great offense while the rest of Europe supports the United States? Could it be that Gerhard Schroeder had an election to win? Or that Jacques Chirac dreams of multipolarity?

Finally, we come to "the White House's obvious intention to go to war". Perhaps the French and Germans would've been more cooperative if the US wasn't serious about disarming Iraq by any means necessary? Didn't the NYT admit just a few sentences ago that 1441 "combined with the movement of American forces to the Persian Gulf region" forced Iraq to make concessions?
There may be a few days more for diplomacy to play out on Iraq, but it is already clear that the great powers on the Security Council, particularly the United States and France, have brought the United Nations to the brink of just the kind of paralysis and powerlessness that they warned would be so damaging to the world.
Hold on. Is it the paralysis or Saddam Hussein we're worried about here?

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# Posted 7:24 PM by David Adesnik  

COMMON SENSE: From a NYT article on Catholic attitudes toward the war:
"The rest of the world sees us as a big bully," said Lucas Gallegos, 80, a retired pastry chef who travels frequently to Europe to teach his craft. "But if we can come out of this and show the world that we didn't go in there to conquer and take the spoils, but to bring about peace, then we will show that it was a just war."
So much for the average American being ignorant.
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# Posted 7:07 PM by David Adesnik  

STRANGER THAN FICTION: Picking up on a recent Onion headline, Josh Marshall says the Korean spy plane incident is Kim Jong Il's way of trying to get Washington's attention.

Marshall adds that the administration has no policy whatsoever on how to deal with North Korea because the State Department doves are deadlocked with the Pentagon/Cheney hawks. Sounds plausible. If the NYT and WaPo showed more of an interest, we might know if that were really the case. But I'm going to withhold judgment for a bit, since it seems that both the hawks and the doves have an interest in keeping North Korea offstage until the Iraq situation is resolved.
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# Posted 3:10 PM by David Adesnik  

RUSSIAN EXPLETIVES: In his semi-pornographic anti-NYT rant, Josh somehow avoided mentioning that Russian pop stars Tatu are full-fledged members of the celebrity anti-war movement. As the NYT reports, Tatu explicitly defied Jay Leno's request to be apolitical by "wearing T-shirts that used a potent Russian expletive to denounce the possible war in Iraq."

I raise this point because the OxBlog readership tends to be both pro-war and pro-Tatu. But you can't have it both ways. While I know where my priorities lie, I do recommend that If your preference for Tatu wins out, you buy yourself one of their expletive-laden anti-war T-shirts. You can also get a Tatu thong, if that's what you're into.

(OxBlog thanks Dima from Overspill for bringing said apparel to our attention.)


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Wednesday, March 05, 2003

# Posted 2:56 PM by David Adesnik  

SADDAM'S CASUALTIES: He kills so many people it's hard to keep track of. According to Jan. 2003 HRW report, there have been between 250,000 and 290,000 disappearances in Iraq. This figure does not include genocidal attacks on the Kurdish population using chemical weapons.
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# Posted 2:39 PM by David Adesnik  

KOSOVO FIGURES: Just read the HRW report on the air war in Kosovo. Civilian fatalities numbered 500. To get a sense of what sort of accuracy that figure reflects, consider this:
In the first month of Operation Allied Force, NATO reported that it averaged around 350 sorties per day, with nearly 130 attack sorties. By the fourth week, it was flying nearly two-and-a -half times the number of attack sorties per day than it flew during the first three weeks. NATO reported in early July that it had flown a total of 37,465 sorties, of which 14,006 were strike and suppression of air defense (SEAD) sorties and 10,808 were strike-attack sorties. By the end of the conflict, NATO had attacked over 900 targets.

As more NATO forces were introduced and the attacks continued, the percentage of PGMs being used also declined. In the early days of Allied Force, "smart" weapons constituted more than 90 percent of the ordnance employed. By mid-May, this had declined to only 10 or 20 percent of the total, with guided weapons constituting about 35 percent of the 26,000 weapons employed throughout the course of the war
In short, the ratio of bombs to civilian fatalities was 50 to 1. If only Serb bullets had been as kind to the Kosovars.
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# Posted 2:17 PM by David Adesnik  

CASUALTY PREDICTIONS: The Campaign Against Sanctions on Iraq (CASI) has published a set of confidential UN documents that project the extent of the humanitarian crisis in postwar Iraq. Sadly, 1.26 million children will be at risk of death from malnutrition, assuming that the war lasts 2-3 months.

While I haven't had the chance to read up on this sort of thing much, I get the sense that the UN produces these short of shock figures before all conflicts. With any luck, I will be able to compare the Afghanistan projections to the postwar reality.
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# Posted 1:52 PM by David Adesnik  

THE BENEFITS OF DIVERSITY: Still more from Human Rights Watch: (Their website has a ton of stuff. You should visit it!)
On October 7, 2002, UNICEF stated that “child malnutrition remains a major concern, with almost one-third of all children in the south and center of Iraq suffering from chronic malnutrition.”
South and center, huh? What about the rest of Iraq? Ah, yes. Here we go:
The northern Kurdish population has fared better than those in the central or southern areas. WFP [the UN World Food Program] supplies food to the north, recent harvests have been good, and the local population has been able to retain much of what it grows because the central government refuses to purchase grain from northern farmers.
Who knew? Human Rights Watch spreading capitalist propaganda...
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# Posted 1:37 PM by David Adesnik  

THOSE DAMN UNILATERALISTS: According to Human Rights Watch,
Unlike other conflict situations where refugees are able to cross international borders in search of safe haven, Iraqis could become trapped in the midst of a conflict in their own country. Iran, already host to the world's largest refugee population, has sent mixed messages about whether it will allow Iraqi refugees into its territory. Turkey has unequivocally stated for months that it will not honor its international obligation to allow refugees to enter its territory and will set up camps inside Iraq. "Turkey must open its borders to refugees fleeing an emergency at home," [HRW refugee protection expert Alison] Parker said.

Outside of the immediate region, western governments have also prevented Iraqis from seeking asylum in their territories. Europe in particular has policies already in place specifically geared to block Iraqis. These measures include visa restrictions and policies that return Iraqi refugees to "safe third countries" such as Turkey, or to places inside Iraq that are allegedly "safe," such as northern Iraq. All such restrictive policies should be lifted for Iraqis fleeing now and as a consequence of war, the briefing paper urges.
People, haven't you heard of international law? It's not a joke!
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Tuesday, March 04, 2003

# Posted 10:36 PM by David Adesnik  

CASUALTIES FROM THE FIRST GULF WAR: Via Human Rights Watch:
Middle East Watch concludes that the number of Iraqi civilians killed as a direct result of injury from allied bombs and missiles will ultimately be calculated in the thousands, not the hundreds. At the same time, we are reasonably confident that the total number of civilians killed directly by allied attacks did not exceed several thousand, with an upper limit of perhaps between 2,500 and 3,000 Iraqi dead. These numbers, we note, do not include the substantially larger number of deaths that can be attributed to malnutrition, disease and lack of medical care caused by a combination of the U.N.-mandated embargo and the allies' destruction of Iraq's electrical system, with its severe secondary effects
To put this in context, consider that
Repeatedly during the bombing campaign allied commanders suggested that in urban areas where civilian populations were likely to be found, allied air forces were using the most sophisticated munitions at their disposal to minimize the risk of collateralcivilian harm. The U.S. Air Force chief of staff, Gen. Merrill A. McPeak, estimated that some 90 percent of these so-called "smart" weapons hit their targets.

Yet according to Gen. McPeak, precision-guided bombs accounted for only 7,400 of the 84,200 tons of munitions dropped by the allies during Operation Desert Storm, or a mere 8.8 percent, some of which was used to attack hardened targets in the Kuwaiti military theater. The remaining 91.2 percent consisted of unguided weaponry -- so-called "dumb" bombs -- with a reported estimated accuracy rate of only 25 percent.

While downtown Baghdad was said to have been attacked with only precision weapons, the Pentagon and its allies have remained silent about the type of munitions used in other urban areas. It appears likely that at least some of the munitions used in urban areas outside of downtown Baghdad were unguided -- "the same dumb iron bombs that fell on Berlin, Pyongyang and Hanoi," in the words of one former U.S. army officer. For example, Basra, which was largely off-limits to foreign reporters during the air war, appears to have suffered considerably more damage to civilian structures than Baghdad, where a small international press force was present.
84,200 tons of munitions, only 8.8% of which were precision-guided and the US still only 2500-3000 civilian casualties. Somewhere, a Russian is smiling.
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# Posted 10:08 PM by David Adesnik  

EVIDENCE FOR SEWALL: From the 31 Oct 2001 issue of Salon:
Continuing in the tradition of the Gulf War, the most press-managed conflict in history, government officials have attempted to control information through spin control, with tightlipped briefings, vague official statements and praise for "highly accurate" and "precision-guided" weapons that still occasionally miss. Instead of preparing the public for the inevitability of civilian casualties by explaining how American soldiers are trained to avoid them and describing what went wrong when they occur, the Bush administration and the Pentagon have instead created expectations that can't be met. Disappointment, if not anger, is the inevitable result.
Plus:
Studies conducted after the [Gulf] war proved the [negative] expectations to be far-fetched. Human Rights Watch, the most trusted source for civilian casualty data, found that the number of civilian deaths in the Gulf War was "historically low" -- but more that 3,000 civilians were still killed.

"Considering the extent of the campaigns, these numbers are very low," Kohn says. But because the Pentagon led people to believe that there would be virtually no civilian casualties -- showing only pictures of successful targets hit at briefings -- the numbers seemed disturbingly high, he adds.
Of course, the US looks good compared to certain other members of the UN Security Council:
While U.S. military actions over the past 12 years have demonstrated dramatic improvements in keeping noncombatants from harm, other major wars have shown just the opposite. Russia's 1994-1996 war in Chechnya was excoriated by human rights organizations, the State Department and other governments. Russian armed forces made few attempts to focus exclusively on military targets, using scorched-earth tactics harking back to Vietnam and the Second World War. They completely leveled Grozny, the capital of Chechnya, killing, according to Rachel Denbar of Human Rights Watch, "conservatively 15,000 to 20,000 civilians."
What was that about everything on grand scale???
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# Posted 9:30 PM by David Adesnik  

AFGHAN CASUALTIES: In February 17, 2002, the Boston Globe ran a front page story on its somewhat-comprehensive study of Afghan casualties. The study included strong data on 830 civilian deaths, plus a projection of a few hundred more. (Sorry, no permalink -- stil using Nexis-Lexis.)

What's interesting about both this study as well as the one by the LA Times which I cited before is that both are presented as revelations of brutatlity that the US government has refused to acknowledge. The following quote gives a sense of how the Globe spins the issue:
Along with faulty intelligence and the imprecision of aerial warfare, a large number of deaths can be attributed to the selection of targets in civilian areas. One high-profile example occurred during the war at Tora Bora when a US warplane hit the home of an associate of Osama bin Laden at the suggestion of Afghan commanders who knew he was not there. That attack in Pachir Agam killed an estimated 70 villagers.

The conflict's very nature, analysts said, played a role as well. When the war shifted from the dispatch of the Taliban to the narrower hunt for bin Laden, Mullah Mohammed Omar, and a few top cohorts, the task became more difficult. In at least three such targeted attempts, US bombs killed scores of villagers - many children among them - who had no connection to the top terrorists or their associates.

In past weeks, the Pentagon has faced questions from the media as well as some Afghan officials about the military decisions that resulted in civilian casualties.

General Tommy R. Franks, the commander of the war in Afghanistan, defended the campaign as "the most accurate war ever fought" in US history. Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld has steadfastly maintained that the war has cost relatively few civilian lives.

"If one were to take this activity in Afghanistan and rank it as to the number of civilian deaths" and the care taken by US forces to avoid them, Franks said, "I can't imagine there's been a conflict in history where there has been less collateral damage, less unintended consequences."

But one need look no further back than the estimated 500 civilian deaths in the 1999 Kosovo war to undercut that claim.
My first reaction to this is that Sarah Sewall was right about how bad the US military is at dealing with civilian casualty issues. If I were confronted with hyperbolic statements like the one by Tommy Franks, I'd also go looking for injured children.

On the other hand, the attitude of the Globe and LAT correspondents makes a mockey of Marc Herold's accusation that they are corporate stooges. God bless John Peter Zenger!
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# Posted 8:17 PM by David Adesnik  

BAD ATTITUDE: Sarah Sewall, a program director at Harvard's Carr Center for Human Rights and a former Clinton State Department official, has some harsh words for the US military regarding its attitude toward collateral damage. In a Boston Globe op-ed (PDF available here), Sewall writes that
Operation Enduring Freedom showed that senior US officials remain ill-equipped to manage expectation and consequences of collateral damage. American responses to civilian deaths in Afghanistan remain ad hoc, reactive and defensive.

Rather than publicizing their efforts to avoid civilian casualties, the US military avoids such discussion. Officials express generic, passive-voiced regrets about civilian deaths. When faced with allegations about American responsibility for civilian casualties, officials often have little information to share; this allows initial reports and exaggerated allegations to shape public perception. Even when the United States does investigate such allegations, the findings are rarely publicized, leaving the impression that the American forces have whitewashed problems or ignored an opportunity to learn.
I don't know if Sewall is right about all this, but her advice sounds good. And one reason is trust her is that Marc Herold has accused her of being a corporate stooge.
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# Posted 8:03 PM by David Adesnik  

COLLATERAL DAMAGE: The civilian casualty issue going to come up at the OxDem panel discussion, so I thought I'd better be prepared. Here's what I've found so far:

Radical firebrand Marc Herold, a professor of the University of New Hampshire, has conducted an allegedly comprehensive study which concluded that Allied bombing resulted in the death of about 3,600 Afghan civilians. In an essay blasting the the "corporate" media's undercounting of Afghan casualties, Herold observes that
those who generate low overall numbers of civilian casualties stress the faulty intelligence provided by Afghans [they absolve themselves of responsibility], point to an alleged proclivity of the Taliban to inflate such figures, and uncritically accept that the new precision-guided munitions kill mostly the 'bad guys.'

Others like myself point to a very simple, powerful single explanation: The thousands of Afghan civilians who perished under U.S bombs did so because U.S. military and political elites chose to carry out a bombing campaign using extremely powerful weaponry having high margins of error and with huge killing and blast radiuses in largely civilian-rich areas."
Unsurprisingly, Herold goes on to demand that American officials be brought up on war crimes charges.

Frankly, I was surprised that Herold's casualty count was so low. Even so, I am inclined to place a lot more trust in a comprehensive study by the LA Times which put the casualty figure at somewhere between 1000 and 1200. (Sorry, no permalink.) According to author David Zucchino,
“The Times reviewed more than 2,000 reports of civilian casualties from US, British and Pakistani newspapers and international wire services. After eliminating duplicate accounts, the survey identified 194 incidents of civilian casualties from the start of the bombing until Feb. 28, when the air campaign was largely completed. The reported death toll, including estimates in some cases, was between 1,067 and 1,201. The Times excluded 754 civilian deaths reported by the Taliban but not independently confirmed, as well as 497 deaths that were not identified as civilian or military.

“These numbers suggest a very low civilian casualty rate compared with earlier Afghan conflicts. During battles among warlords in Kabul in the early 1990s, more than 50,000 civilians were killed according to the International Committee of the Red Cross. In the western city of Herat, an estimated 20,000 civlians were killed in a matter of days by Soviet air raids in March 1979, just a fraction of the estimated 670,000 civilians who died during the ten year Soviet occupation.”
Typical. The Soviets always have to do everything on a grand scale, just to show off.
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# Posted 7:23 PM by David Adesnik  

SEX AT YALE: OxBlog is really letting its standards go these days. Anyway, the Atlantic Online has a long article about "Sex Week" at Yale.

Actually, the article doesn't really tell you anything about sex at Yale, only people at Yale talking about sex elsewhere. On the bright side, Al Goldstein was there! Al Goldstein!!!
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# Posted 3:07 PM by David Adesnik  

WITH FRIENDS LIKE THESE: A sympathetic David Ignatius interviews Dominique de Villepin for the WaPo. You'd think Villepin would have taken the opportunity to offer more than condescending remarks about his American counterparts. Or is it Ignatius who left all of Villepin's substantive remarks on the cutting room floor?
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# Posted 2:53 PM by David Adesnik  

MOTHERLAND SECURITY: We can't have homeland security without guarding old stocks of WMD in Mother Russia. While the US has spent $6 billion to protect Russian weapons since 1992, federal auditors have just released a report that holds both the Putin and Bush administrations responsible for unnecessary delays.

According to Duncan Hunter (R-CA), chairman of the House Armed Services Committee, the US has failed miserably to ensure that its money is spent on projects that actually enhance American security rather than padding the back pockets of Russian politicians.

Condi, where are you on this one?
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# Posted 2:41 PM by David Adesnik  

MY FRIENDS IN THE 101ST are now on the ground in Kuwait. They may be at the head of our charge into Baghdad. Take care of yourselves, guys.
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# Posted 2:21 PM by David Adesnik  

OPERATION ANACONDA: On Sunday, the NYT published an interesting first-hand account of the largest battle during the Afghan invasion, written by a reporter from the Army Times.
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Monday, March 03, 2003

# Posted 10:26 PM by David Adesnik  

INSTAPORN: While I extend my congratulations to Glenn Reynolds for having an attractive wife, I don't think he should've posted a photo of her in an official Instapundit.com t-shirt (baby doll version). By the same token, I don't think Glenn ought to announce every time he and the Instawife get to spend time alone in hotel rooms. TMI, Glenn, TMI.

Now don't go thinking I'm some sort of puritan. Pictures of J.Lo are fine. But personal stuff weirds me out. I don't mean personal stuff of a non-sexual nature. That kind of thing helps create the friendly, informal atmosphere that makes the blogosphere so much fun to be a part of. But I'd say significant others are out.

While I don't expect to change Glenn's mind on this point, I am hoping to prevent Dan Drezner from making the same mistake. Dan, even if your wife is so stunningly beautiful that we will be forced to ogle her for days on end, that is all the more reason not to post any photos. Besides, if you're gonna post that kinda stuff, you may as well get a web cam and turn the post into a profit-making venture.

Vive la difference!
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# Posted 10:14 PM by David Adesnik  

LIBERAL HAWKS DROPPING LIKE FLIES: I go away for the weekend and all hell breaks loose. Once willing to confront Saddam, Kevin Drum, Matt Yglesias and Sean-Paul Kelly are now sitting on the fence and about to fall leftward.

While Dan Drezner and Dima Guberman have already posted interesting replies, I think that their position slightly to the right of Kevin, Matt and Sean-Paul (on foreign policy), prevents them from saying what liberal hawks need to hear.

While I am probably somewhat to the right of Kevin, Matt and Sean-Paul as well, I think that my foreign policy stands are so fiercely liberal that I might be able to persuade them that their confidence in the need to confront Saddam is faltering prematurely.

So let's begin at the beginning: What is troubling the liberal hawks? As I pointed out a few days ago, we are deeply concerned about the depth of the President's commitment to promoting democracy in the Middle East.

This concern is clearly significant for Kevin, who writes that "George Bush has given us precious little reason to think that he really cares about" democracy in the Middle East. Matt comments that "there seems to be little reason to believe that the administration actually will accomplish the humanitarian objective."

Now I agree that one ought to have serious concerns about Bush's commitment to democracy promotion. But why have Kevin and Matt become so worried in the immediate aftermath of the speech in which Bush went further than ever before in spelling out his commitment to promoting democracy throughout the Middle East? (Not just in Iraq, a point Kieran Healy seems to miss.)

While talking the talk is not the same as walking the walk, one has to realize two things about Bush's speech. The first is a general point which relates to all political speeches: When polticians make explicit promises, they can either be punished for breaking them or forced to live up to them. As for punishment, I ask you to recall the immortal words of America's 41st president: "Read my lips. No new taxes."

As for being forced to live up to one's promises, that is the subject of my doctoral disserta