OxBlog

Wednesday, May 14, 2003

# Posted 10:18 PM by Ariel David Adesnik  

RECONSTRUCTION WATCH: The United Nations is about to recognize the United States' preeminent role in the adminstration of postwar Iraq. Why? The WaPo suggests that the Security Council wants to avoid another public confrontation with the US. I'd guess that reports of chaos in Baghdad have persuaded the French, Russians and Chinese that they want nothing to do with the occupation.

As time goes by, I'm becoming more and more convinced that American planning for the occupation was lackluster at best. In constrast, SCIRI seems to have planned out almost every detail of its rise to power. Now, I don't think there's much chance that it will get all that far. But its preparations demonstrate how much the United States might have accomplished if it had combined its resources with that sort of effort.

[UPDATE: Larry Kaplan has evidence that the US may have a quiet plan to prevent Shi'ite dominance in Iraq.]

There are a couple of bright spots, though. The United States forced the new director of Iraq's Health Ministry to resign after he refused to disavow the Ba'ath (which the United States recently abolished). Also, in one of the first interviews he has given since the war's end, Paul Wolfowitz indicated that the US cannot accomplish its objectives if it does not make a long-term commitment to the rebuilding of Iraq.

So it looks like we're going to have to fight this one out in the bureaucratic trenches. Which means I should probably working on OxDem stuff instead of blogging...
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