OxBlog

Saturday, January 11, 2003

# Posted 6:25 PM by Ariel David Adesnik  

FEELING LIKE MY OLD SELF AGAIN: Having spent the last couple of weeks defending the Bush administration's North Korea policy from liberal depredations, I'd begun to wonder whether I had become physically unable to criticize the President. What happened to the David of yore, whose unflagging criticism of the administration's incompetent diplomacy led Mr. Chafetz to throw down the gauntlet and demand that I provide evidence to back up my charges?

Well, that David is back. Take a look at this story about the NSC's hesitation to share intelligence with the UN inspectors in Iraq. I think sharing intelligence is good, even if the Blix Boys haven't shown themselves to be latter-day Sherlock Holmeses.

But the real question is this: Why didn't the Bush administration work out an intelligence sharing plan as soon as the UN passed Resolution 1441? As I said the last time this question came up, the answer is that the administration just can't think one step ahead when it comes to working with the UN. With Powell spending all his time convincing the President to work with the UN and Rumsfeld & Cheney spending all of their time trying to stop Powell, there is no one left to think about how to make US-UN cooperation effective.

Now, was it reasonable to ask that the administration recognize in advance that a lack of intelligence sharing might become an obstacle to effective inspections? Well, OxBlog pointed out the problem almost two months ago. And while one can't expect Condi to read OxBlog, my concerns were based on a report in the NY Times.

Next question: Does intelligence sharing matter? Absolutely. The French and British are now calling for further inspections, since Blix hasn't found a smoking gun. In other words, they don't want Bush making a final decision about whether or not invade at the end of this month.

But what will the inspectors find if given more time? In addition to the hawks who have always dismissed inspections as pointless, there are moderates who have long insisted that finding a smoking gun simply isn't possible.

Bush himself insisted way back in October, "Facing clear evidence of peril, we cannot wait for the final proof, the smoking gun that could come in the form of a mushroom cloud." On the other hand, he hasn't shown that he is willing to act unilaterally regardless of how much he talks about it.

Now, to be fair, things haven't spun out of control just yet. Jan. 27 is still a couple of weeks away. And the US buildup is set to reach 150,000 troops in the coming weeks. But the clock is ticking and the game is afoot.
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